Analysis Result #5904

{
  "analysis": {
    "input_data": {
      "article": "Title: Godrej Consumer needs to check many boxes for earnings revival\n\nPublished: 2025-12-05\n\nContent: A meaningful lift in consolidated performance hinges on stronger volume growth outside soaps, reduced pricing pressure in soaps, and improved international operations, particularly in Indonesia.",
      "full_prompt_sent_to_llm": "=== NEWS ARTICLE ===\nTitle: Godrej Consumer needs to check many boxes for earnings revival\n\nPublished: 2025-12-05\n\nContent: A meaningful lift in consolidated performance hinges on stronger volume growth outside soaps, reduced pricing pressure in soaps, and improved international operations, particularly in Indonesia.\n\n=== TOP MATCHING STOCK FROM RAG ===\n\nSymbol: GODREJCP.NS\nCompany: Godrej Consumer Products Limited\nSector: Consumer Defensive\nIndustry: Household \u0026 Personal Products\nSimilarity Score: 0.4600 (46.00%)\n\nMarket Data:\n\u2022 Current Price: 1132.30\n\u2022 Previous Close: 1133.8\n\u2022 Day Low: 1120.2\n\u2022 Day High: 1140.0\n\u2022 52-Week Low: 979.5\n\u2022 52-Week High: 1328.85\n\u2022 Volume: 2429487\n\u2022 Avg Volume: 1389437\n\nAdvanced Technical Indicators (21 total):\nClose_3d:1136.50,1133.80,1132.30 | RSI:39.17 | MACD:-22.784/-25.782/2.998 | BB:1191.83/1142.43/1093.03 | MA:1142.43/1199.75 | ATR:22.91 | OBV:-16,116,841 | WillR:-45.14 | CMF:-0.0748 | Ichi:1121.90/1180.90/1151.40/1203.15 | PSAR:1108.97 | Aroon:16.00/76.00 | VWAP:1217.26 | Force:-2608941.76 | Mass:23.53 | Coppock:-3.20 | UltOsc:50.39\n\nQuantitative Risk \u0026 Performance Metrics (35 total):\nAvgVol:1,390,779 | Price:1132.30 | VaR:-0.0222/-0.0346 | CVaR:-0.0326/-0.0559 | Std:0.0161 | AnnVol:0.2557 | DownDev:0.0151 | Skew:0.0978 | Kurt:4.5104 | Sharpe:-0.3920 | MaxDD:-0.2321 | VolRat:1.7048 | P/MA20:0.9911 | P/MA50:0.9438 | VolReg:0.7403 | Mom:-0.0811/-0.0775 | MeanRet:-0.0003 | W/L:0.83 | Amihud:0.000000 | Roll:0.000000 | VolSurp:0.6290 | Omega:0.9428 | Sortino:-0.3565 | TailR:1.1553 | ESRat:1.4681 | Hurst:0.2606 | HalfL:20.85 | Mom120:-0.0930 | ApEn:0.7635\n\n=== ANALYZE THE ARTICLE (use RAG context if relevant) ===",
      "rag_context": {
        "company": "Godrej Consumer Products Limited",
        "country": "India",
        "description_preview": "[STOCK SYMBOL]: GODREJCP.NS\n[COMPANY NAME]: Godrej Consumer Products Limited\n[SECTOR]: Consumer Defensive\n[INDUSTRY]: Household \u0026 Personal Products\n[COUNTRY]: India\n-----------------------------------...",
        "full_description": "[STOCK SYMBOL]: GODREJCP.NS\n[COMPANY NAME]: Godrej Consumer Products Limited\n[SECTOR]: Consumer Defensive\n[INDUSTRY]: Household \u0026 Personal Products\n[COUNTRY]: India\n--------------------------------------------------------------------------------\ncountry - India\nindustry - Household \u0026 Personal Products\nsector - Consumer Defensive\nlongBusinessSummary - Godrej Consumer Products Limited, a fast-moving consumer goods company, manufactures and sells personal care and home care products in India, Africa, Indonesia, the Middle East, the United States, and internationally. The company offers household insecticides, home hygiene, and air and fabric care products; and personal wash and hygiene, hair color, beauty and professional products, and deodorants and fragrances. It provides its products under the Godrej Aer-O, Goodknight Agarbatti, Godrej Ninja, Good knight, Godrej Expert, Darling, Saniter, HIT, MegaGrowth, Godrej Ezee, Godrej No.1, CINTHOL, Ilicit, ISSUE, INECTO, Godrej magic, Godrej nupur, Godrej Professional, tcb Naturals, renew, Just for me, ROBY, Pamelagrant Beauty, Villeneuve, Millefiori, African Pride, Stella, Mitu, NYU, Purest, Godrej Genteel, Park Avenune, and KamaSutra brands. The company was founded in 1897 and is headquartered in Mumbai, India.\nfullTimeEmployees - 2962\npreviousClose - 1133.8\nopen - 1134.8\ndayLow - 1120.2\ndayHigh - 1140.0\nregularMarketDayLow - 1120.2\nregularMarketDayHigh - 1140.0\ndividendRate - 20.0\ndividendYield - 1.76\nexDividendDate - 1755043200\npayoutRatio - 1.1037999\nfiveYearAvgDividendYield - 0.88\nbeta - 0.252\ntrailingPE - 62.42007\nforwardPE - 51.304943\nvolume - 2429487\nregularMarketVolume - 2429487\naverageVolume - 1389437\naverageVolume10days - 1389350\naverageDailyVolume10Day - 1389350\nmarketCap - 1158459162624\nfiftyTwoWeekLow - 979.5\nfiftyTwoWeekHigh - 1328.85\npriceToSalesTrailing12Months - 7.8835864\nfiftyDayAverage - 1202.176\ntwoHundredDayAverage - 1185.1123\ntrailingAnnualDividendRate - 20.0\ntrailingAnnualDividendYield - 0.017639795\ncurrency - INR\nenterpriseValue - 1164790726656\nprofitMargins - 0.12617\nfloatShares - 362646093\nsharesOutstanding - 1023102604\nheldPercentInsiders - 0.62797\nheldPercentInstitutions - 0.1992\nbookValue - 117.293\npriceToBook - 9.653603\nearningsQuarterlyGrowth - 0.004\nnetIncomeToCommon - 18540599296\ntrailingEps - 18.14\nforwardEps - 22.07\nenterpriseToRevenue - 7.927\nenterpriseToEbitda - 40.022\nlastDividendValue - 5.0\nquoteType - EQUITY\ncurrentPrice - 1132.3\ntargetHighPrice - 1500.0\ntargetLowPrice - 978.0\ntargetMeanPrice - 1368.1666\ntargetMedianPrice - 1400.0\nrecommendationMean - 1.51429\nrecommendationKey - buy\nnumberOfAnalystOpinions - 36\ntotalCash - 35582701568\ntotalCashPerShare - 34.782\nebitda - 29103599616\ntotalDebt - 40439898112\ntotalRevenue - 146945703936\ndebtToEquity - 33.689\nrevenuePerShare - 143.595\ngrossProfits - 77528997888\nearningsGrowth - 0.005\nrevenueGrowth - 0.099\ngrossMargins - 0.5276\nebitdaMargins - 0.19805999\noperatingMargins - 0.17347\nshortName - GODREJ CONSUMER PRODUCTS\nlongName - Godrej Consumer Products Limited\nepsTrailingTwelveMonths - 18.14\nepsCurrentYear - 22.22852\nexchange - NSI\nregularMarketPrice - 1132.3\ntrailingPegRatio - None\n--------------------------------------------------------------------------------\n[BUSINESS SUMMARY]\nGodrej Consumer Products Limited, a fast-moving consumer goods company, manufactures and sells personal care and home care products in India, Africa, Indonesia, the Middle East, the United States, and internationally. The company offers household insecticides, home hygiene, and air and fabric care products; and personal wash and hygiene, hair color, beauty and professional products, and deodorants and fragrances. It provides its products under the Godrej Aer-O, Goodknight Agarbatti, Godrej Ninja, Good knight, Godrej Expert, Darling, Saniter, HIT, MegaGrowth, Godrej Ezee, Godrej No.1, CINTHOL, Ilicit, ISSUE, INECTO, Godrej magic, Godrej nupur, Godrej Professional, tcb Naturals, renew, Just for me, ROBY, Pamelagrant Beauty, Villeneuve, Millefiori, African Pride, Stella, Mitu, NYU, Purest, Godrej Genteel, Park Avenune, and KamaSutra brands. The company was founded in 1897 and is headquartered in Mumbai, India.\n--------------------------------------------------------------------------------\n[IMPORTANT METRICS]\nCompany: Godrej Consumer Products Limited\nSector: Consumer Defensive\nIndustry: Household \u0026 Personal Products\nCountry: India\nMarket Cap: 1158.46B\nCurrent Price: 1132.3\nP/E Ratio: 62.42007\nP/B Ratio: 9.653603\nDividend Yield: 1.7600%\nProfit Margin: 0.1262\nBeta: 0.2520\nVolume: 2,429,487\nAvg Volume: 1,389,437\nDay Range: 1120.2 - 1140.0\n52Wk Range: 979.5 - 1328.85\nTotal Revenue: 146945703936\nTotal Cash: 35.58B\nTotal Debt: 40.44B\nDebt to Equity: 33.689\nTarget Price: 978.0 - 1500.0\nAnalyst Opinions: 36\nRecommendation: buy\n--------------------------------------------------------------------------------\n[TECHNICAL] Close_3d:1136.50,1133.80,1132.30 | RSI:39.17 | MACD:-22.784/-25.782/2.998 | BB:1191.83/1142.43/1093.03 | MA:1142.43/1199.75 | ATR:22.91 | OBV:-16,116,841 | WillR:-45.14 | CMF:-0.0748 | Ichi:1121.90/1180.90/1151.40/1203.15 | PSAR:1108.97 | Aroon:16.00/76.00 | VWAP:1217.26 | Force:-2608941.76 | Mass:23.53 | Coppock:-3.20 | UltOsc:50.39\n--------------------------------------------------------------------------------\n[QUANT] AvgVol:1,390,779 | Price:1132.30 | VaR:-0.0222/-0.0346 | CVaR:-0.0326/-0.0559 | Std:0.0161 | AnnVol:0.2557 | DownDev:0.0151 | Skew:0.0978 | Kurt:4.5104 | Sharpe:-0.3920 | MaxDD:-0.2321 | VolRat:1.7048 | P/MA20:0.9911 | P/MA50:0.9438 | VolReg:0.7403 | Mom:-0.0811/-0.0775 | MeanRet:-0.0003 | W/L:0.83 | Amihud:0.000000 | Roll:0.000000 | VolSurp:0.6290 | Omega:0.9428 | Sortino:-0.3565 | TailR:1.1553 | ESRat:1.4681 | Hurst:0.2606 | HalfL:20.85 | Mom120:-0.0930 | ApEn:0.7635",
        "industry": "Household \u0026 Personal Products",
        "sector": "Consumer Defensive",
        "similarity_score": 0.45998767,
        "symbol": "GODREJCP.NS"
      }
    },
    "llm_analysis": {
      "actionable_summary": {
        "action": "watch",
        "bias": "neutral",
        "headline": "Godrej Consumer lacks near-term catalysts",
        "rationale": "Wait for volume growth or pricing power signals"
      },
      "between_lines": "Market waiting for concrete signs of earnings recovery; current technical setup favors sellers",
      "confidence_score": 55,
      "connections": {
        "affects_directly": [
          "GODREJCP.NS"
        ],
        "affects_indirectly": [
          "FMCG sector",
          "Indonesia consumer"
        ],
        "cause_effect_chain": "Volume growth + pricing power + Indonesia recovery \u2192 earnings revival",
        "follow_the_money": "margins recovery"
      },
      "core": {
        "action": "watch",
        "momentum": "neutral",
        "momentum_reasoning": "Price flat vs prev close (-0.13 %) and technicals show weak momentum (RSI 39, MACD negative, Hurst 0.26 mean-reverting)",
        "sector": "Consumer Defensive",
        "topic": "earnings revival",
        "trigger": "need for volume growth outside soaps, pricing relief in soaps, and better Indonesia ops"
      },
      "cross_stock_impact": [],
      "data_quality": {
        "article_length_tokens": 45,
        "has_financial_data": false,
        "has_price_data": true,
        "has_sentiment_indicators": true,
        "missing_critical_info": [
          "quantified guidance",
          "timeline",
          "specific targets"
        ],
        "overall_quality_score": 0.5
      },
      "deals": {
        "counterparty": [],
        "deal_currency": null,
        "deal_size": null,
        "deal_type": null
      },
      "entities": [
        {
          "name": "Godrej Consumer Products",
          "role": "catalyst",
          "ticker": "GODREJCP.NS",
          "type": "company"
        },
        {
          "name": "Indonesia",
          "role": "catalyst",
          "ticker": null,
          "type": "country"
        }
      ],
      "financials": {
        "buyback": null,
        "data_source": "article",
        "dividend": null,
        "funding_amount": null,
        "guidance": "needs volume growth outside soaps, pricing relief, Indonesia improvement",
        "profit": null,
        "revenue": null,
        "valuation": null
      },
      "market_reaction": {
        "expected_impact": "Neutral until fundamentals improve",
        "index_impact": [],
        "price_change": "-0.13 %",
        "volume_change": "+74.8 %"
      },
      "numerical_extractions": {
        "fiscal_period": null,
        "mentioned_prices": [],
        "mentioned_targets": [],
        "poll_source": null,
        "profit_change_pct": null,
        "revenue_change_pct": null,
        "volume_growth_yoy_pct": null
      },
      "patterns": {
        "pattern_reasoning": "No breakout or accumulation signals; CMF negative (-0.0748) and volume multiple 1.75 indicates elevated selling pressure",
        "pattern_type": null,
        "similar_past_event": null,
        "stage": "late",
        "strength": "weak"
      },
      "rag_alignment": {
        "rag_company_relevant": "yes",
        "relevance_reasoning": "46 % similarity and article explicitly names Godrej Consumer",
        "should_prioritize_rag": true,
        "similarity_interpretation": "direct_match"
      },
      "reasoning_chain": [
        "Article lists multiple conditions for revival",
        "No immediate catalyst",
        "Technical indicators weak",
        "Volume elevated but price flat",
        "Neutral stance warranted"
      ],
      "red_flags": [
        "RSI below 40",
        "MACD negative",
        "Hurst exponent 0.26 indicates mean-reversion",
        "Price below VWAP",
        "CMF negative showing distribution"
      ],
      "sentiment": {
        "confidence": 0.6,
        "direction": "neutral",
        "drivers": [
          "no clear catalyst",
          "multiple conditions required",
          "weak technical backdrop"
        ],
        "intensity": 0.4
      },
      "signals": {
        "crowd_behavior": {
          "source": "inference",
          "value": "apathy"
        },
        "key_levels": {
          "source": "article",
          "values": [
            "1120.2",
            "1140.0",
            "1132.3"
          ]
        },
        "price_action_expected": {
          "source": "inference",
          "value": "range"
        },
        "reaction_reasoning": "volume_multiple 1.75 shows elevated activity but no directional conviction; price stuck between day low/high",
        "volume_expectation": {
          "source": "inference",
          "value": "surge"
        }
      },
      "smart_money": {
        "big_players": [],
        "evidence": "OBV declining (-16.1M) and price below VWAP (1217.26)",
        "retail_position": "neutral",
        "their_likely_motive": "awaiting fundamental improvement"
      },
      "timing": {
        "catalyst_date": null,
        "expected_duration_days": 30,
        "temporal_anchor": "2025-12-05",
        "urgency": "this_month"
      },
      "trading_angles": [
        {
          "conviction": "low",
          "idea": "Wait for close above 1140 with improved volume for momentum entry",
          "reasoning": "Technical weakness and neutral news flow",
          "risk": "range-bound grind continues"
        }
      ]
    },
    "metrics": {
      "model_params": {
        "max_completion_tokens": 8192,
        "model": "moonshotai/kimi-k2-instruct-0905",
        "reasoning_effort": "medium",
        "stream": false,
        "temperature": 0.4,
        "top_p": 0.9
      },
      "timing": {
        "end_time": "2025-12-06T00:18:51.326263",
        "llm_response_seconds": 3.294,
        "rag_query_seconds": 0.726,
        "start_time": "2025-12-06T00:18:47.305526",
        "total_duration_seconds": 4.021
      },
      "tokens": {
        "actual_from_api": {
          "input_tokens": 4647,
          "output_tokens": 876,
          "total_tokens": 5523
        }
      }
    },
    "rag_match": {
      "company": "Godrej Consumer Products Limited",
      "sector": "Consumer Defensive",
      "similarity_score": 0.45998767,
      "symbol": "GODREJCP.NS"
    },
    "timestamp": "2025-12-06T00:18:51.326685"
  },
  "article_id": "c2fe81a1-0800-4e13-9576-be8f1736f973",
  "result_id": "20251206_001851",
  "status": "completed"
}