Analysis Result #3339

{
  "analysis": {
    "input_data": {
      "article": "Title: CME cattle futures end weaker, hogs set April low\n\nPublished: 2025-11-18\n\nContent: USA-LIVESTOCK/:LIVESTOCK-CME cattle futures end weaker, hogs set April low",
      "full_prompt_sent_to_llm": "=== NEWS ARTICLE ===\nTitle: CME cattle futures end weaker, hogs set April low\n\nPublished: 2025-11-18\n\nContent: USA-LIVESTOCK/:LIVESTOCK-CME cattle futures end weaker, hogs set April low\n\n=== TOP MATCHING STOCK FROM RAG ===\n\nSymbol: ESCORTS.NS\nCompany: Escorts Kubota Limited\nSector: Industrials\nIndustry: Farm \u0026 Heavy Construction Machinery\nSimilarity Score: 0.3017 (30.17%)\n\nMarket Data:\n\u2022 Current Price: 3676.70\n\u2022 Previous Close: 3703.7\n\u2022 Day Low: 3661.0\n\u2022 Day High: 3722.2\n\u2022 52-Week Low: 2776.4\n\u2022 52-Week High: 4180.0\n\u2022 Volume: 40621\n\u2022 Avg Volume: 192473\n\nAdvanced Technical Indicators (21 total):\nClose_3d:3694.50,3703.70,3676.70 | RSI:53.01 | MACD:25.204/16.356/8.848 | BB:3788.86/3617.38/3445.91 | MA:3617.38/3615.62 | ATR:94.21 | OBV:322,958 | WillR:-38.34 | CMF:-0.0034 | Ichi:3681.95/3609.45/3645.70/3741.00 | PSAR:3783.37 | Aroon:8.00/40.00 | VWAP:3492.97 | Force:4656306.55 | Mass:23.54 | Coppock:5.37 | UltOsc:48.63\n\nQuantitative Risk \u0026 Performance Metrics (35 total):\nAvgVol:190,746 | Price:3676.70 | VaR:-0.0294/-0.0465 | CVaR:-0.0394/-0.0521 | Std:0.0195 | AnnVol:0.3092 | DownDev:0.0179 | Skew:0.6090 | Kurt:2.6274 | Sharpe:0.1117 | MaxDD:-0.2417 | VolRat:2.0612 | P/MA20:1.0164 | P/MA50:1.0169 | VolReg:1.0541 | Mom:0.0054/0.0569 | MeanRet:0.0002 | W/L:0.93 | Amihud:0.000000 | Roll:0.000000 | VolSurp:-0.7729 | Omega:1.0281 | Sortino:0.1741 | TailR:1.0223 | ESRat:1.3392 | Hurst:0.1937 | HalfL:14.40 | Mom120:0.1485 | ApEn:0.8328\n\n=== ANALYZE THE ARTICLE (use RAG context if relevant) ===",
      "rag_context": {
        "company": "Escorts Kubota Limited",
        "country": "India",
        "description_preview": "[STOCK SYMBOL]: ESCORTS.NS\n[COMPANY NAME]: Escorts Kubota Limited\n[SECTOR]: Industrials\n[INDUSTRY]: Farm \u0026 Heavy Construction Machinery\n[COUNTRY]: India\n-----------------------------------------------...",
        "full_description": "[STOCK SYMBOL]: ESCORTS.NS\n[COMPANY NAME]: Escorts Kubota Limited\n[SECTOR]: Industrials\n[INDUSTRY]: Farm \u0026 Heavy Construction Machinery\n[COUNTRY]: India\n--------------------------------------------------------------------------------\ncountry - India\nindustry - Farm \u0026 Heavy Construction Machinery\nsector - Industrials\nlongBusinessSummary - Escorts Kubota Limited manufactures and sells agricultural and construction equipment in India and internationally. The company offers rotavator, straw reaper, super seeder, MB plough, orchard sprayer, paddy harvester, rice transplanter, hydraulic pump, diesel filter, and gear products, as well as parts and lubricants; diesel engines; and cranes, vibratory soil compactors, backhoe loaders, tandem rollers, and mini excavators. It also provides agricultural tractors; engines for agricultural tractors; construction, earth moving, and material handling equipment; and round and flat tubes, heating elements, center buffer couplers, automobile shock absorbers, telescopic front fork and Mcpherson struts, internal combustion engines, and brake blocks. In addition, the company trades in oils and lubricants, implements, trailers, tractors, compressor accessories and spares, construction, earth moving, and material handling equipment. Further, it develops, produces, and import parts and accessories, as well as provides maintenance and warranty, crop, and financing services. The company offer its products under the Farmtrac, Powertrac, Steeltrac, Farmpower, and Kubota brands. The company was formerly known as Escorts Limited and changed its name to Escorts Kubota Limited in June 2022. Escorts Kubota Limited was incorporated in 1944 and is based in Faridabad, India. Escorts Kubota Limited is a subsidiary of Kubota Corporation.\nfullTimeEmployees - 4622\npreviousClose - 3703.7\nopen - 3706.0\ndayLow - 3661.0\ndayHigh - 3722.2\nregularMarketDayLow - 3661.0\nregularMarketDayHigh - 3722.2\ndividendRate - 46.0\ndividendYield - 1.24\nexDividendDate - 1751587200\npayoutRatio - 0.2507\nfiveYearAvgDividendYield - 0.38\nbeta - 0.143\ntrailingPE - 32.871704\nforwardPE - 30.423666\nvolume - 40621\nregularMarketVolume - 40621\naverageVolume - 192473\naverageVolume10days - 137108\naverageDailyVolume10Day - 137108\nmarketCap - 404528889856\nfiftyTwoWeekLow - 2776.4\nfiftyTwoWeekHigh - 4180.0\npriceToSalesTrailing12Months - 3.9775903\nfiftyDayAverage - 3613.768\ntwoHundredDayAverage - 3365.4885\ntrailingAnnualDividendRate - 0.0\ntrailingAnnualDividendYield - 0.0\ncurrency - INR\nenterpriseValue - 382832148480\nprofitMargins - 0.23209\nfloatShares - 31533864\nsharesOutstanding - 110024995\nheldPercentInsiders - 0.73136\nheldPercentInstitutions - 0.13763\nbookValue - 926.619\npriceToBook - 3.967866\nearningsQuarterlyGrowth - 3.767\nnetIncomeToCommon - 12291999744\ntrailingEps - 111.85\nforwardEps - 120.85\nenterpriseToRevenue - 3.764\nenterpriseToEbitda - 33.817\nlastDividendValue - 18.0\nquoteType - EQUITY\ncurrentPrice - 3676.7\ntargetHighPrice - 4150.0\ntargetLowPrice - 2670.0\ntargetMeanPrice - 3540.1052\ntargetMedianPrice - 3688.0\nrecommendationMean - 2.78947\nrecommendationKey - hold\nnumberOfAnalystOpinions - 19\ntotalCash - 32542300160\ntotalCashPerShare - 290.874\nebitda - 11320750080\ntotalDebt - 1051800000\ntotalRevenue - 101702000640\ndebtToEquity - 1.015\nrevenuePerShare - 924.645\ngrossProfits - 29309100032\nearningsGrowth - 3.704\nrevenueGrowth - 0.082\ngrossMargins - 0.28819\nebitdaMargins - 0.11131\noperatingMargins - 0.104729995\nexchange - NSI\nlongName - Escorts Kubota Limited\nregularMarketPrice - 3676.7\nepsTrailingTwelveMonths - 111.85\nepsCurrentYear - 115.79141\nshortName - ESCORTS KUBOTA LIMITED\ntrailingPegRatio - None\n--------------------------------------------------------------------------------\n[BUSINESS SUMMARY]\nEscorts Kubota Limited manufactures and sells agricultural and construction equipment in India and internationally. The company offers rotavator, straw reaper, super seeder, MB plough, orchard sprayer, paddy harvester, rice transplanter, hydraulic pump, diesel filter, and gear products, as well as parts and lubricants; diesel engines; and cranes, vibratory soil compactors, backhoe loaders, tandem rollers, and mini excavators. It also provides agricultural tractors; engines for agricultural tractors; construction, earth moving, and material handling equipment; and round and flat tubes, heating elements, center buffer couplers, automobile shock absorbers, telescopic front fork and Mcpherson struts, internal combustion engines, and brake blocks. In addition, the company trades in oils and lubricants, implements, trailers, tractors, compressor accessories and spares, construction, earth moving, and material handling equipment. Further, it develops, produces, and import parts and accessories, as well as provides maintenance and warranty, crop, and financing services. The company offer its products under the Farmtrac, Powertrac, Steeltrac, Farmpower, and Kubota brands. The company was formerly known as Escorts Limited and changed its name to Escorts Kubota Limited in June 2022. Escorts Kubota Limited was incorporated in 1944 and is based in Faridabad, India. Escorts Kubota Limited is a subsidiary of Kubota Corporation.\n--------------------------------------------------------------------------------\n[IMPORTANT METRICS]\nCompany: Escorts Kubota Limited\nSector: Industrials\nIndustry: Farm \u0026 Heavy Construction Machinery\nCountry: India\nMarket Cap: 404.53B\nCurrent Price: 3676.7\nP/E Ratio: 32.871704\nP/B Ratio: 3.967866\nDividend Yield: 1.2400%\nProfit Margin: 0.2321\nBeta: 0.1430\nVolume: 40,621\nAvg Volume: 192,473\nDay Range: 3661.0 - 3722.2\n52Wk Range: 2776.4 - 4180.0\nTotal Revenue: 101702000640\nTotal Cash: 32.54B\nTotal Debt: 1.05B\nDebt to Equity: 1.015\nTarget Price: 2670.0 - 4150.0\nAnalyst Opinions: 19\nRecommendation: hold\n--------------------------------------------------------------------------------\n[TECHNICAL] Close_3d:3694.50,3703.70,3676.70 | RSI:53.01 | MACD:25.204/16.356/8.848 | BB:3788.86/3617.38/3445.91 | MA:3617.38/3615.62 | ATR:94.21 | OBV:322,958 | WillR:-38.34 | CMF:-0.0034 | Ichi:3681.95/3609.45/3645.70/3741.00 | PSAR:3783.37 | Aroon:8.00/40.00 | VWAP:3492.97 | Force:4656306.55 | Mass:23.54 | Coppock:5.37 | UltOsc:48.63\n--------------------------------------------------------------------------------\n[QUANT] AvgVol:190,746 | Price:3676.70 | VaR:-0.0294/-0.0465 | CVaR:-0.0394/-0.0521 | Std:0.0195 | AnnVol:0.3092 | DownDev:0.0179 | Skew:0.6090 | Kurt:2.6274 | Sharpe:0.1117 | MaxDD:-0.2417 | VolRat:2.0612 | P/MA20:1.0164 | P/MA50:1.0169 | VolReg:1.0541 | Mom:0.0054/0.0569 | MeanRet:0.0002 | W/L:0.93 | Amihud:0.000000 | Roll:0.000000 | VolSurp:-0.7729 | Omega:1.0281 | Sortino:0.1741 | TailR:1.0223 | ESRat:1.3392 | Hurst:0.1937 | HalfL:14.40 | Mom120:0.1485 | ApEn:0.8328",
        "industry": "Farm \u0026 Heavy Construction Machinery",
        "sector": "Industrials",
        "similarity_score": 0.301744461,
        "symbol": "ESCORTS.NS"
      }
    },
    "llm_analysis": {
      "actionable_summary": {
        "action": "sell",
        "bias": "bearish",
        "headline": "Livestock futures break lower",
        "rationale": "Fresh lows signal further weakness absent bullish catalyst"
      },
      "between_lines": "Market focused on technical breakdown; fund liquidation likely underway",
      "confidence_score": 60,
      "connections": {
        "affects_directly": [
          "livestock futures",
          "cattle",
          "hogs"
        ],
        "affects_indirectly": [
          "feed producers",
          "meat processors",
          "packers"
        ],
        "cause_effect_chain": "Weak futures \u2192 lower cash bids \u2192 margin pressure on producers \u2192 cheaper input for processors",
        "follow_the_money": "short livestock or long meat processors"
      },
      "core": {
        "action": "dump",
        "momentum": "fading",
        "momentum_reasoning": "Both cattle and hog futures ended lower, setting fresh lows \u2013 indicative of downward momentum",
        "sector": "Commodities",
        "topic": "livestock futures weakness",
        "trigger": "CME cattle futures close weaker; lean-hog futures print new April low"
      },
      "cross_stock_impact": [],
      "data_quality": {
        "article_length_tokens": 30,
        "has_financial_data": false,
        "has_price_data": false,
        "has_sentiment_indicators": true,
        "missing_critical_info": [
          "price levels",
          "volume",
          "fundamental drivers"
        ],
        "overall_quality_score": 0.3
      },
      "deals": {
        "counterparty": [],
        "deal_currency": null,
        "deal_size": null,
        "deal_type": null
      },
      "entities": [
        {
          "name": "CME cattle futures",
          "role": "catalyst",
          "ticker": null,
          "type": "commodity"
        },
        {
          "name": "CME lean-hog futures",
          "role": "catalyst",
          "ticker": null,
          "type": "commodity"
        }
      ],
      "financials": {
        "buyback": null,
        "data_source": null,
        "dividend": null,
        "funding_amount": null,
        "guidance": null,
        "profit": null,
        "revenue": null,
        "valuation": null
      },
      "market_reaction": {
        "expected_impact": "Lower cash livestock prices this week",
        "index_impact": [],
        "price_change": null,
        "volume_change": null
      },
      "numerical_extractions": {
        "fiscal_period": null,
        "mentioned_prices": [],
        "mentioned_targets": [],
        "poll_source": null,
        "profit_change_pct": null,
        "revenue_change_pct": null,
        "volume_growth_yoy_pct": null
      },
      "patterns": {
        "pattern_reasoning": "Sustained decline taking out April lows signals late-stage dump",
        "pattern_type": "dump",
        "similar_past_event": null,
        "stage": "late",
        "strength": "moderate"
      },
      "rag_alignment": {
        "rag_company_relevant": "no",
        "relevance_reasoning": "30 % similarity is weak; article is about US livestock futures, RAG stock is an Indian farm-machinery maker with no direct linkage",
        "should_prioritize_rag": false,
        "similarity_interpretation": "weak_connection"
      },
      "reasoning_chain": [
        "Cattle futures closed weaker",
        "Hog futures printed new April low",
        "No supporting numbers or drivers given",
        "Momentum interpreted as negative"
      ],
      "red_flags": [
        "No price levels or volume data in article",
        "Story lacks fundamental drivers (feed, demand, exports)",
        "Thin detail \u2013 only headline sentiment"
      ],
      "sentiment": {
        "confidence": 0.8,
        "direction": "negative",
        "drivers": [
          "cattle futures settle weaker",
          "hog futures hit April low",
          "broad livestock selling"
        ],
        "intensity": 0.7
      },
      "signals": {
        "crowd_behavior": {
          "source": "inference",
          "value": "panic"
        },
        "key_levels": {
          "source": "article",
          "values": []
        },
        "price_action_expected": {
          "source": "inference",
          "value": "grind_down"
        },
        "reaction_reasoning": "Fresh lows encourage stop-loss selling",
        "volume_expectation": {
          "source": "inference",
          "value": "normal"
        }
      },
      "smart_money": {
        "big_players": [
          "managed-money longs"
        ],
        "evidence": "Weak closes and new lows typically trigger retail selling",
        "retail_position": "following",
        "their_likely_motive": "liquidating length on demand \u0026 technical breaks"
      },
      "timing": {
        "catalyst_date": null,
        "expected_duration_days": 5,
        "temporal_anchor": "2025-11-18",
        "urgency": "this_week"
      },
      "trading_angles": [
        {
          "conviction": "medium",
          "idea": "Short cattle/hog or buy put spreads",
          "reasoning": "Momentum remains down with no support cited",
          "risk": "USDA or export surprise"
        }
      ]
    },
    "metrics": {
      "model_params": {
        "max_completion_tokens": 8192,
        "model": "moonshotai/kimi-k2-instruct-0905",
        "reasoning_effort": "medium",
        "stream": false,
        "temperature": 0.4,
        "top_p": 0.9
      },
      "timing": {
        "end_time": "2025-11-18T22:25:51.500166",
        "llm_response_seconds": 3.088,
        "rag_query_seconds": 1.12,
        "start_time": "2025-11-18T22:25:47.291109",
        "total_duration_seconds": 4.209
      },
      "tokens": {
        "actual_from_api": {
          "input_tokens": 4637,
          "output_tokens": 816,
          "total_tokens": 5453
        }
      }
    },
    "rag_match": {
      "company": "Escorts Kubota Limited",
      "sector": "Industrials",
      "similarity_score": 0.301744461,
      "symbol": "ESCORTS.NS"
    },
    "timestamp": "2025-11-18T22:25:51.500353"
  },
  "article_id": "81ed2624-4027-4de2-ac7a-b5ab9a578b0c",
  "result_id": "20251118_222551",
  "status": "completed"
}