Analysis Result #3338

{
  "analysis": {
    "input_data": {
      "article": "Title: GST cuts to boost urban demand, especially for packaged food: Marico CEO\n\nPublished: 2025-11-18\n\nContent: Marico expects demand to rise as GST cuts lift urban packaged-food sales and rural markets stay steady, said MD \u0026amp;amp; CEO Saugata Gupta. GST disruption and high input costs affected the quarter, but easing copra prices and stable volumes support a firmer outlook.",
      "full_prompt_sent_to_llm": "=== NEWS ARTICLE ===\nTitle: GST cuts to boost urban demand, especially for packaged food: Marico CEO\n\nPublished: 2025-11-18\n\nContent: Marico expects demand to rise as GST cuts lift urban packaged-food sales and rural markets stay steady, said MD \u0026amp;amp; CEO Saugata Gupta. GST disruption and high input costs affected the quarter, but easing copra prices and stable volumes support a firmer outlook.\n\n=== TOP MATCHING STOCK FROM RAG ===\n\nSymbol: GSPL.NS\nCompany: Gujarat State Petronet Limited\nSector: Utilities\nIndustry: Utilities - Regulated Gas\nSimilarity Score: 0.4029 (40.29%)\n\nMarket Data:\n\u2022 Current Price: 314.00\n\u2022 Previous Close: 311.85\n\u2022 Day Low: 310.5\n\u2022 Day High: 315.2\n\u2022 52-Week Low: 261.45\n\u2022 52-Week High: 401.4\n\u2022 Volume: 737920\n\u2022 Avg Volume: 646526\n\nAdvanced Technical Indicators (21 total):\nClose_3d:311.15,311.85,314.00 | RSI:50.07 | MACD:1.183/2.363/-1.180 | BB:326.56/316.20/305.84 | MA:316.20/307.32 | ATR:7.81 | OBV:7,973,016 | WillR:-74.02 | CMF:0.0265 | Ichi:316.47/313.00/314.74/306.40 | PSAR:322.28 | Aroon:20.00/36.00 | VWAP:317.97 | Force:129668.63 | Mass:24.49 | Coppock:-4.29 | UltOsc:48.70\n\nQuantitative Risk \u0026 Performance Metrics (35 total):\nAvgVol:827,133 | Price:314.00 | VaR:-0.0272/-0.0345 | CVaR:-0.0354/-0.0515 | Std:0.0181 | AnnVol:0.2868 | DownDev:0.0175 | Skew:0.3263 | Kurt:2.2254 | Sharpe:-0.6198 | MaxDD:-0.3155 | VolRat:1.9119 | P/MA20:0.9930 | P/MA50:1.0217 | VolReg:1.0247 | Mom:0.0032/-0.0373 | MeanRet:-0.0006 | W/L:0.88 | Amihud:0.000000 | Roll:0.000000 | VolSurp:0.0744 | Omega:0.9083 | Sortino:-0.5872 | TailR:1.1051 | ESRat:1.2989 | Hurst:0.2508 | HalfL:23.56 | Mom120:0.0029 | ApEn:0.6641\n\n=== ANALYZE THE ARTICLE (use RAG context if relevant) ===",
      "rag_context": {
        "company": "Gujarat State Petronet Limited",
        "country": "India",
        "description_preview": "[STOCK SYMBOL]: GSPL.NS\n[COMPANY NAME]: Gujarat State Petronet Limited\n[SECTOR]: Utilities\n[INDUSTRY]: Utilities - Regulated Gas\n[COUNTRY]: India\n------------------------------------------------------...",
        "full_description": "[STOCK SYMBOL]: GSPL.NS\n[COMPANY NAME]: Gujarat State Petronet Limited\n[SECTOR]: Utilities\n[INDUSTRY]: Utilities - Regulated Gas\n[COUNTRY]: India\n--------------------------------------------------------------------------------\ncountry - India\nindustry - Utilities - Regulated Gas\nsector - Utilities\nlongBusinessSummary - Gujarat State Petronet Limited transmits natural gas through pipeline on an open access basis from supply points to demand centers in India. The company develops energy transportation infrastructure and connects natural gas supply sources, including LNG terminals to various markets. It also operates city gas distribution and trading of natural gas business, as well as generates electricity through windmills. The company transports natural gas to various customers, including refineries, steel plants, fertilizer plants, petrochemical plants, power plants, glass, textiles, chemical, city gas distribution (CGD) companies, and other industries in various segments. Gujarat State Petronet Limited was incorporated in 1998 and is based in Gandhinagar, India.\nfullTimeEmployees - 252\npreviousClose - 311.85\nopen - 311.85\ndayLow - 310.5\ndayHigh - 315.2\nregularMarketDayLow - 310.5\nregularMarketDayHigh - 315.2\ndividendRate - 5.0\ndividendYield - 1.6\nexDividendDate - 1757462400\npayoutRatio - 0.2688\nfiveYearAvgDividendYield - 1.08\nbeta - 0.483\ntrailingPE - 16.8908\nforwardPE - 21.23056\nvolume - 737920\nregularMarketVolume - 737920\naverageVolume - 646526\naverageVolume10days - 466428\naverageDailyVolume10Day - 466428\nmarketCap - 179179126784\nfiftyTwoWeekLow - 261.45\nfiftyTwoWeekHigh - 401.4\npriceToSalesTrailing12Months - 1.0697253\nfiftyDayAverage - 309.213\ntwoHundredDayAverage - 315.184\ntrailingAnnualDividendRate - 0.0\ntrailingAnnualDividendYield - 0.0\ncurrency - INR\nenterpriseValue - 152358043648\nprofitMargins - 0.06273\nfloatShares - 246367337\nsharesOutstanding - 564211376\nheldPercentInsiders - 0.4911\nheldPercentInstitutions - 0.35731\nbookValue - 206.163\npriceToBook - 1.5230668\nearningsQuarterlyGrowth - -0.161\nnetIncomeToCommon - 10507921408\ntrailingEps - 18.59\nforwardEps - 14.79\nenterpriseToRevenue - 0.91\nenterpriseToEbitda - 5.912\nlastDividendValue - 5.0\nquoteType - EQUITY\ncurrentPrice - 314.0\ntargetHighPrice - 440.0\ntargetLowPrice - 270.0\ntargetMeanPrice - 343.375\ntargetMedianPrice - 337.0\nrecommendationMean - 2.64706\nrecommendationKey - hold\nnumberOfAnalystOpinions - 16\ntotalCash - 39089061888\ntotalCashPerShare - 80.743\nebitda - 25769428992\ntotalDebt - 1381273984\ntotalRevenue - 167500136448\ndebtToEquity - 0.888\nrevenuePerShare - 307.705\ngrossProfits - 41871863808\nearningsGrowth - -0.023\nrevenueGrowth - -0.131\ngrossMargins - 0.24997999\nebitdaMargins - 0.15385\noperatingMargins - 0.12892\nshortName - GUJARAT STATE PETRO LTD\nlongName - Gujarat State Petronet Limited\nepsTrailingTwelveMonths - 18.59\nepsCurrentYear - 23.50716\nexchange - NSI\nregularMarketPrice - 314.0\ntrailingPegRatio - None\n--------------------------------------------------------------------------------\n[BUSINESS SUMMARY]\nGujarat State Petronet Limited transmits natural gas through pipeline on an open access basis from supply points to demand centers in India. The company develops energy transportation infrastructure and connects natural gas supply sources, including LNG terminals to various markets. It also operates city gas distribution and trading of natural gas business, as well as generates electricity through windmills. The company transports natural gas to various customers, including refineries, steel plants, fertilizer plants, petrochemical plants, power plants, glass, textiles, chemical, city gas distribution (CGD) companies, and other industries in various segments. Gujarat State Petronet Limited was incorporated in 1998 and is based in Gandhinagar, India.\n--------------------------------------------------------------------------------\n[IMPORTANT METRICS]\nCompany: Gujarat State Petronet Limited\nSector: Utilities\nIndustry: Utilities - Regulated Gas\nCountry: India\nMarket Cap: 179.18B\nCurrent Price: 314.0\nP/E Ratio: 16.8908\nP/B Ratio: 1.5230668\nDividend Yield: 1.6000%\nProfit Margin: 0.0627\nBeta: 0.4830\nVolume: 737,920\nAvg Volume: 646,526\nDay Range: 310.5 - 315.2\n52Wk Range: 261.45 - 401.4\nTotal Revenue: 167500136448\nTotal Cash: 39.09B\nTotal Debt: 1.38B\nDebt to Equity: 0.888\nTarget Price: 270.0 - 440.0\nAnalyst Opinions: 16\nRecommendation: hold\n--------------------------------------------------------------------------------\n[TECHNICAL] Close_3d:311.15,311.85,314.00 | RSI:50.07 | MACD:1.183/2.363/-1.180 | BB:326.56/316.20/305.84 | MA:316.20/307.32 | ATR:7.81 | OBV:7,973,016 | WillR:-74.02 | CMF:0.0265 | Ichi:316.47/313.00/314.74/306.40 | PSAR:322.28 | Aroon:20.00/36.00 | VWAP:317.97 | Force:129668.63 | Mass:24.49 | Coppock:-4.29 | UltOsc:48.70\n--------------------------------------------------------------------------------\n[QUANT] AvgVol:827,133 | Price:314.00 | VaR:-0.0272/-0.0345 | CVaR:-0.0354/-0.0515 | Std:0.0181 | AnnVol:0.2868 | DownDev:0.0175 | Skew:0.3263 | Kurt:2.2254 | Sharpe:-0.6198 | MaxDD:-0.3155 | VolRat:1.9119 | P/MA20:0.9930 | P/MA50:1.0217 | VolReg:1.0247 | Mom:0.0032/-0.0373 | MeanRet:-0.0006 | W/L:0.88 | Amihud:0.000000 | Roll:0.000000 | VolSurp:0.0744 | Omega:0.9083 | Sortino:-0.5872 | TailR:1.1051 | ESRat:1.2989 | Hurst:0.2508 | HalfL:23.56 | Mom120:0.0029 | ApEn:0.6641",
        "industry": "Utilities - Regulated Gas",
        "sector": "Utilities",
        "similarity_score": 0.402871132,
        "symbol": "GSPL.NS"
      }
    },
    "llm_analysis": {
      "actionable_summary": {
        "action": "buy",
        "bias": "bullish",
        "headline": "GST cut tailwind for Marico volume growth",
        "rationale": "Policy easing + input cost relief = demand uptick"
      },
      "between_lines": "Management guiding for volume-led recovery after a tough quarter",
      "confidence_score": 68,
      "connections": {
        "affects_directly": [
          "Marico",
          "packaged-food makers"
        ],
        "affects_indirectly": [
          "FMCG indices",
          "retailers",
          "copra suppliers"
        ],
        "cause_effect_chain": "GST cuts \u2192 lower shelf prices \u2192 higher urban offtake \u2192 volume growth",
        "follow_the_money": "urban consumption theme"
      },
      "core": {
        "action": "buying",
        "momentum": "building",
        "momentum_reasoning": "Policy tailwind + easing input costs + stable rural demand = demand uptick expected",
        "sector": "Consumer",
        "topic": "GST policy impact",
        "trigger": "GST cuts on packaged food"
      },
      "cross_stock_impact": [
        {
          "impact_strength": 0.4,
          "impact_type": "positive",
          "reasoning": "GST cut benefits entire packaged food basket",
          "symbol": "NIFTYFMCG.NS"
        }
      ],
      "data_quality": {
        "article_length_tokens": 85,
        "has_financial_data": false,
        "has_price_data": false,
        "has_sentiment_indicators": true,
        "missing_critical_info": [
          "GST rate magnitude",
          "quantified volume outlook",
          "competitive response"
        ],
        "overall_quality_score": 0.55
      },
      "deals": {
        "counterparty": [],
        "deal_currency": null,
        "deal_size": null,
        "deal_type": null
      },
      "entities": [
        {
          "name": "Marico",
          "role": "winner",
          "ticker": null,
          "type": "company"
        },
        {
          "name": "Saugata Gupta",
          "role": "catalyst",
          "ticker": null,
          "type": "person"
        }
      ],
      "financials": {
        "buyback": null,
        "data_source": "article",
        "dividend": null,
        "funding_amount": null,
        "guidance": "firmer outlook",
        "profit": null,
        "revenue": null,
        "valuation": null
      },
      "market_reaction": {
        "expected_impact": "Inference: Positive sector sentiment",
        "index_impact": [
          "NIFTY FMCG"
        ],
        "price_change": null,
        "volume_change": null
      },
      "numerical_extractions": {
        "fiscal_period": null,
        "mentioned_prices": [],
        "mentioned_targets": [],
        "poll_source": null,
        "profit_change_pct": null,
        "revenue_change_pct": null,
        "volume_growth_yoy_pct": null
      },
      "patterns": {
        "pattern_reasoning": "Policy-driven demand boost typically leads to early accumulation in FMCG names",
        "pattern_type": "accumulation",
        "similar_past_event": null,
        "stage": "early",
        "strength": "moderate"
      },
      "rag_alignment": {
        "rag_company_relevant": "no",
        "relevance_reasoning": "40.3 % similarity; article about Marico (FMCG) while RAG shows Gujarat State Petronet (Utilities - Gas). No overlap.",
        "should_prioritize_rag": false,
        "similarity_interpretation": "weak_connection"
      },
      "reasoning_chain": [
        "GST cuts on packaged food announced",
        "Marico CEO expects urban demand lift",
        "Copra prices easing",
        "Volume outlook stable",
        "Sector sentiment positive"
      ],
      "red_flags": [
        "No specific GST rate mentioned",
        "Competitive intensity may negate price advantage",
        "Rural demand only described as steady"
      ],
      "sentiment": {
        "confidence": 0.75,
        "direction": "positive",
        "drivers": [
          "GST rate cuts",
          "urban demand lift",
          "stable rural markets",
          "easing copra prices",
          "volume stability"
        ],
        "intensity": 0.65
      },
      "signals": {
        "crowd_behavior": {
          "source": "inference",
          "value": "excitement"
        },
        "key_levels": {
          "source": "null",
          "values": []
        },
        "price_action_expected": {
          "source": "inference",
          "value": "grind_up"
        },
        "reaction_reasoning": "Policy easing + cost tailwinds = gradual rerating",
        "volume_expectation": {
          "source": "inference",
          "value": "normal"
        }
      },
      "smart_money": {
        "big_players": [
          "institutional FMCG holders"
        ],
        "evidence": "policy catalyst + input cost relief",
        "retail_position": "following",
        "their_likely_motive": "position ahead of volume pickup"
      },
      "timing": {
        "catalyst_date": null,
        "expected_duration_days": 90,
        "temporal_anchor": "2025-11-18",
        "urgency": "this_month"
      },
      "trading_angles": [
        {
          "conviction": "medium",
          "idea": "Accumulate Marico on dips; target demand uptick in Q4",
          "reasoning": "GST cut benefit + easing copra = double tailwind",
          "risk": "Competitive pricing may cap margin expansion"
        }
      ]
    },
    "metrics": {
      "model_params": {
        "max_completion_tokens": 8192,
        "model": "moonshotai/kimi-k2-instruct-0905",
        "reasoning_effort": "medium",
        "stream": false,
        "temperature": 0.4,
        "top_p": 0.9
      },
      "timing": {
        "end_time": "2025-11-18T21:57:51.106559",
        "llm_response_seconds": 3.202,
        "rag_query_seconds": 0.681,
        "start_time": "2025-11-18T21:57:47.223382",
        "total_duration_seconds": 3.883
      },
      "tokens": {
        "actual_from_api": {
          "input_tokens": 4652,
          "output_tokens": 866,
          "total_tokens": 5518
        }
      }
    },
    "rag_match": {
      "company": "Gujarat State Petronet Limited",
      "sector": "Utilities",
      "similarity_score": 0.402871132,
      "symbol": "GSPL.NS"
    },
    "timestamp": "2025-11-18T21:57:51.106951"
  },
  "article_id": "ade522d1-9ea8-4c47-828b-707983325429",
  "result_id": "20251118_215751",
  "status": "completed"
}