Analysis Result #3337

{
  "analysis": {
    "input_data": {
      "article": "Title: With IPO filings at a decade\u0027s high, calendar 2025 may end a record year by monies raised\n\nPublished: 2025-11-18\n\nContent: A subdued start to the year gave way to a surge in \u0026amp;nbsp;IPO filings as GST cuts, expectations on India-US trade talks, and positive macroeconomic data stoked investor enthusiasm. Already a decade-high by number of IPOs filed, the monies raised in such sales could also scale a new record in India.",
      "full_prompt_sent_to_llm": "=== NEWS ARTICLE ===\nTitle: With IPO filings at a decade\u0027s high, calendar 2025 may end a record year by monies raised\n\nPublished: 2025-11-18\n\nContent: A subdued start to the year gave way to a surge in \u0026amp;nbsp;IPO filings as GST cuts, expectations on India-US trade talks, and positive macroeconomic data stoked investor enthusiasm. Already a decade-high by number of IPOs filed, the monies raised in such sales could also scale a new record in India.\n\n=== TOP MATCHING STOCK FROM RAG ===\n\nSymbol: THOMASCOOK.NS\nCompany: Thomas Cook (India) Limited\nSector: Consumer Cyclical\nIndustry: Travel Services\nSimilarity Score: 0.3316 (33.16%)\n\nMarket Data:\n\u2022 Current Price: 164.28\n\u2022 Previous Close: 167.36\n\u2022 Day Low: 162.16\n\u2022 Day High: 168.73\n\u2022 52-Week Low: 118.25\n\u2022 52-Week High: 224.5\n\u2022 Volume: 654540\n\u2022 Avg Volume: 1307801\n\nAdvanced Technical Indicators (21 total):\nClose_3d:167.07,167.36,164.28 | RSI:50.59 | MACD:-0.608/-1.860/1.252 | BB:170.83/160.93/151.04 | MA:160.93/167.14 | ATR:5.40 | OBV:65,245,293 | WillR:-25.34 | CMF:0.0658 | Ichi:159.95/162.68/161.32/164.72 | PSAR:161.55 | Aroon:8.00/64.00 | VWAP:163.90 | Force:1682923.36 | Mass:25.05 | Coppock:7.96 | UltOsc:54.56\n\nQuantitative Risk \u0026 Performance Metrics (35 total):\nAvgVol:1,270,825 | Price:164.28 | VaR:-0.0424/-0.0563 | CVaR:-0.0565/-0.0830 | Std:0.0308 | AnnVol:0.4885 | DownDev:0.0284 | Skew:0.6624 | Kurt:3.0550 | Sharpe:0.0287 | MaxDD:-0.4563 | VolRat:3.2570 | P/MA20:1.0208 | P/MA50:0.9829 | VolReg:0.9795 | Mom:-0.0254/-0.1080 | MeanRet:0.0001 | W/L:0.99 | Amihud:0.000000 | Roll:0.000000 | VolSurp:-0.3761 | Omega:1.0104 | Sortino:0.0644 | TailR:1.2532 | ESRat:1.3325 | Hurst:0.2482 | HalfL:34.11 | Mom120:0.2119 | ApEn:0.6713\n\n=== ANALYZE THE ARTICLE (use RAG context if relevant) ===",
      "rag_context": {
        "company": "Thomas Cook (India) Limited",
        "country": "India",
        "description_preview": "[STOCK SYMBOL]: THOMASCOOK.NS\n[COMPANY NAME]: Thomas Cook (India) Limited\n[SECTOR]: Consumer Cyclical\n[INDUSTRY]: Travel Services\n[COUNTRY]: India\n-----------------------------------------------------...",
        "full_description": "[STOCK SYMBOL]: THOMASCOOK.NS\n[COMPANY NAME]: Thomas Cook (India) Limited\n[SECTOR]: Consumer Cyclical\n[INDUSTRY]: Travel Services\n[COUNTRY]: India\n--------------------------------------------------------------------------------\ncountry - India\nindustry - Travel Services\nsector - Consumer Cyclical\nlongBusinessSummary - Thomas Cook (India) Limited offers integrated travel services in India and internationally. It operates through financial services, travel and related services, vacation ownership and resorts business, and digiphoto imaging services segments. The financial services segment engages in the wholesale, and retail purchase and sale of foreign currencies and paid documents. Its service segment is involved in tour operations, travel management, visa services, and travel insurance and related activities. Thomas Cook (India) Limited was founded in 1881 and is based in Mumbai, India. Thomas Cook (India) Limited operates as a subsidiary of Fairbridge Capital (Mauritius) Limited.\nfullTimeEmployees - 10194\npreviousClose - 167.36\nopen - 168.53\ndayLow - 162.16\ndayHigh - 168.73\nregularMarketDayLow - 162.16\nregularMarketDayHigh - 168.73\ndividendRate - 0.45\ndividendYield - 0.27\nexDividendDate - 1755734400\npayoutRatio - 0.074200004\nfiveYearAvgDividendYield - 0.33\nbeta - 0.198\ntrailingPE - 30.478664\nvolume - 654540\nregularMarketVolume - 654540\naverageVolume - 1307801\naverageVolume10days - 1361892\naverageDailyVolume10Day - 1361892\nmarketCap - 76515532800\nfiftyTwoWeekLow - 118.25\nfiftyTwoWeekHigh - 224.5\npriceToSalesTrailing12Months - 0.9064114\nfiftyDayAverage - 167.524\ntwoHundredDayAverage - 154.61885\ntrailingAnnualDividendRate - 0.0\ntrailingAnnualDividendYield - 0.0\ncurrency - INR\nenterpriseValue - 71051608064\nforwardPE - 20.407454\nprofitMargins - 0.02974\nfloatShares - 153406071\nsharesOutstanding - 465762954\nheldPercentInsiders - 0.64878\nheldPercentInstitutions - 0.09115\nbookValue - 48.643\npriceToBook - 3.3772588\nearningsQuarterlyGrowth - -0.043\nnetIncomeToCommon - 2510899968\ntrailingEps - 5.39\nenterpriseToRevenue - 0.842\nenterpriseToEbitda - 14.605\nlastDividendValue - 0.45\nquoteType - EQUITY\ncurrentPrice - 164.28\ntargetHighPrice - 230.0\ntargetLowPrice - 215.0\ntargetMeanPrice - 222.5\ntargetMedianPrice - 222.5\nrecommendationMean - 1.0\nrecommendationKey - strong_buy\nnumberOfAnalystOpinions - 2\ntotalCash - 11166000128\ntotalCashPerShare - 24.021\nebitda - 4864875008\ntotalDebt - 4651400192\ntotalRevenue - 84415897600\ndebtToEquity - 20.796\nrevenuePerShare - 181.217\ngrossProfits - 11195899904\nearningsGrowth - -0.043\nrevenueGrowth - 0.143\ngrossMargins - 0.13262999\nebitdaMargins - 0.05763\noperatingMargins - 0.03786\nregularMarketPrice - 164.28\nlongName - Thomas Cook (India) Limited\nshortName - THOMAS COOK (INDIA) LTD\nepsTrailingTwelveMonths - 5.39\nepsCurrentYear - 6.55\nexchange - NSI\ntrailingPegRatio - None\n--------------------------------------------------------------------------------\n[BUSINESS SUMMARY]\nThomas Cook (India) Limited offers integrated travel services in India and internationally. It operates through financial services, travel and related services, vacation ownership and resorts business, and digiphoto imaging services segments. The financial services segment engages in the wholesale, and retail purchase and sale of foreign currencies and paid documents. Its service segment is involved in tour operations, travel management, visa services, and travel insurance and related activities. Thomas Cook (India) Limited was founded in 1881 and is based in Mumbai, India. Thomas Cook (India) Limited operates as a subsidiary of Fairbridge Capital (Mauritius) Limited.\n--------------------------------------------------------------------------------\n[IMPORTANT METRICS]\nCompany: Thomas Cook (India) Limited\nSector: Consumer Cyclical\nIndustry: Travel Services\nCountry: India\nMarket Cap: 76.52B\nCurrent Price: 164.28\nP/E Ratio: 30.478664\nP/B Ratio: 3.3772588\nDividend Yield: 0.2700%\nProfit Margin: 0.0297\nBeta: 0.1980\nVolume: 654,540\nAvg Volume: 1,307,801\nDay Range: 162.16 - 168.73\n52Wk Range: 118.25 - 224.5\nTotal Revenue: 84415897600\nTotal Cash: 11.17B\nTotal Debt: 4.65B\nDebt to Equity: 20.796\nTarget Price: 215.0 - 230.0\nAnalyst Opinions: 2\nRecommendation: strong_buy\n--------------------------------------------------------------------------------\n[TECHNICAL] Close_3d:167.07,167.36,164.28 | RSI:50.59 | MACD:-0.608/-1.860/1.252 | BB:170.83/160.93/151.04 | MA:160.93/167.14 | ATR:5.40 | OBV:65,245,293 | WillR:-25.34 | CMF:0.0658 | Ichi:159.95/162.68/161.32/164.72 | PSAR:161.55 | Aroon:8.00/64.00 | VWAP:163.90 | Force:1682923.36 | Mass:25.05 | Coppock:7.96 | UltOsc:54.56\n--------------------------------------------------------------------------------\n[QUANT] AvgVol:1,270,825 | Price:164.28 | VaR:-0.0424/-0.0563 | CVaR:-0.0565/-0.0830 | Std:0.0308 | AnnVol:0.4885 | DownDev:0.0284 | Skew:0.6624 | Kurt:3.0550 | Sharpe:0.0287 | MaxDD:-0.4563 | VolRat:3.2570 | P/MA20:1.0208 | P/MA50:0.9829 | VolReg:0.9795 | Mom:-0.0254/-0.1080 | MeanRet:0.0001 | W/L:0.99 | Amihud:0.000000 | Roll:0.000000 | VolSurp:-0.3761 | Omega:1.0104 | Sortino:0.0644 | TailR:1.2532 | ESRat:1.3325 | Hurst:0.2482 | HalfL:34.11 | Mom120:0.2119 | ApEn:0.6713",
        "industry": "Travel Services",
        "sector": "Consumer Cyclical",
        "similarity_score": 0.331636429,
        "symbol": "THOMASCOOK.NS"
      }
    },
    "llm_analysis": {
      "actionable_summary": {
        "action": "watch",
        "bias": "bullish",
        "headline": "IPO wave building toward record 2025 proceeds",
        "rationale": "Primary-market momentum strong; play proxies \u0026 new listings"
      },
      "between_lines": "Regulatory nudges (GST cut) plus global thaw setting stage for a 2025 IPO fundraising record; underwriters prepping big pipeline",
      "confidence_score": 75,
      "connections": {
        "affects_directly": [
          "primary market",
          "investment banks",
          "SEBI"
        ],
        "affects_indirectly": [
          "secondary market liquidity",
          "listed new-age peers"
        ],
        "cause_effect_chain": "Policy stimulus + macro data \u2192 sentiment lift \u2192 IPO supply rush \u2192 record proceeds",
        "follow_the_money": "IPO pipeline \u2192 underwriting fees \u2192 listing pops \u2192 sector rotation"
      },
      "core": {
        "action": "ipo",
        "momentum": "building",
        "momentum_reasoning": "Article explicitly states filings at decade-high and momentum accelerated after subdued start",
        "sector": "Macro",
        "topic": "IPO boom",
        "trigger": "GST cuts, trade-talk hopes, upbeat macro data"
      },
      "cross_stock_impact": [
        {
          "impact_strength": 0.6,
          "impact_type": "positive",
          "reasoning": "ICICI Sec earns underwriting fees",
          "symbol": "ISEC.NS"
        },
        {
          "impact_strength": 0.5,
          "impact_type": "positive",
          "reasoning": "Exchange sees listing fee boost",
          "symbol": "BSE.NS"
        }
      ],
      "data_quality": {
        "article_length_tokens": 85,
        "has_financial_data": false,
        "has_price_data": false,
        "has_sentiment_indicators": true,
        "missing_critical_info": [
          "actual proceeds",
          "number of IPOs",
          "sectoral split"
        ],
        "overall_quality_score": 0.55
      },
      "deals": {
        "counterparty": [],
        "deal_currency": "INR",
        "deal_size": null,
        "deal_type": "ipo"
      },
      "entities": [
        {
          "name": "India IPO market",
          "role": "catalyst",
          "ticker": null,
          "type": "market"
        },
        {
          "name": "SEBI",
          "role": "regulator",
          "ticker": null,
          "type": "regulator"
        },
        {
          "name": "GST Council",
          "role": "catalyst",
          "ticker": null,
          "type": "government"
        }
      ],
      "financials": {
        "buyback": null,
        "data_source": "article",
        "dividend": null,
        "funding_amount": null,
        "guidance": "record money raised possible",
        "profit": null,
        "revenue": null,
        "valuation": null
      },
      "market_reaction": {
        "expected_impact": "Inference: Positive sentiment spill-over to new listings",
        "index_impact": [
          "NIFTY IPO index"
        ],
        "price_change": null,
        "volume_change": null
      },
      "numerical_extractions": {
        "fiscal_period": null,
        "mentioned_prices": [],
        "mentioned_targets": [],
        "poll_source": null,
        "profit_change_pct": null,
        "revenue_change_pct": null,
        "volume_growth_yoy_pct": null
      },
      "patterns": {
        "pattern_reasoning": "Filings already at 10-yr high; proceeds could set new record \u2192 strong, mid-cycle IPO wave",
        "pattern_type": "ipo",
        "similar_past_event": null,
        "stage": "middle",
        "strength": "strong"
      },
      "rag_alignment": {
        "rag_company_relevant": "no",
        "relevance_reasoning": "Similarity score 0.33 is weak; article is macro/IPO thematic with no mention of Thomas Cook",
        "should_prioritize_rag": false,
        "similarity_interpretation": "weak_connection"
      },
      "reasoning_chain": [
        "IPOs at decade-high filings",
        "Policy \u0026 macro tailwinds",
        "Proceeds could hit record",
        "Positive sentiment loop"
      ],
      "red_flags": [
        "No data on actual proceeds yet",
        "Macro shocks could derail pipeline",
        "Valuation stretch if supply overwhelms demand"
      ],
      "sentiment": {
        "confidence": 0.8,
        "direction": "positive",
        "drivers": [
          "decade-high filings",
          "potential record money raised",
          "policy tailwinds"
        ],
        "intensity": 0.75
      },
      "signals": {
        "crowd_behavior": {
          "source": "inference",
          "value": "FOMO"
        },
        "key_levels": {
          "source": "article",
          "values": []
        },
        "price_action_expected": {
          "source": "inference",
          "value": "grind_up"
        },
        "reaction_reasoning": "Calendar yr-end push + record narrative \u2192 FOMO into primary issues",
        "volume_expectation": {
          "source": "inference",
          "value": "surge"
        }
      },
      "smart_money": {
        "big_players": [
          "investment banks",
          "PE/VC funds",
          "institutional investors"
        ],
        "evidence": "surge in filings shows smart money lining up supply",
        "retail_position": "following",
        "their_likely_motive": "capitalise on liquidity \u0026 valuations"
      },
      "timing": {
        "catalyst_date": null,
        "expected_duration_days": 45,
        "temporal_anchor": "2025-11-18",
        "urgency": "this_month"
      },
      "trading_angles": [
        {
          "conviction": "medium",
          "idea": "Play listed proxies (ICICI Sec, ISEC, BSE) for fee kicker",
          "reasoning": "Underwriters and exchanges earn direct fees from IPO rush",
          "risk": "Market correction could shelve issues"
        },
        {
          "conviction": "medium",
          "idea": "Watch for oversubscription-driven euphoria spikes",
          "reasoning": "Retail chasing allocation creates short-term demand bursts",
          "risk": "Allotment risk \u0026 listing premium fade"
        }
      ]
    },
    "metrics": {
      "model_params": {
        "max_completion_tokens": 8192,
        "model": "moonshotai/kimi-k2-instruct-0905",
        "reasoning_effort": "medium",
        "stream": false,
        "temperature": 0.4,
        "top_p": 0.9
      },
      "timing": {
        "end_time": "2025-11-18T21:51:51.919812",
        "llm_response_seconds": 3.851,
        "rag_query_seconds": 0.817,
        "start_time": "2025-11-18T21:51:47.250595",
        "total_duration_seconds": 4.669
      },
      "tokens": {
        "actual_from_api": {
          "input_tokens": 4673,
          "output_tokens": 987,
          "total_tokens": 5660
        }
      }
    },
    "rag_match": {
      "company": "Thomas Cook (India) Limited",
      "sector": "Consumer Cyclical",
      "similarity_score": 0.331636429,
      "symbol": "THOMASCOOK.NS"
    },
    "timestamp": "2025-11-18T21:51:51.919904"
  },
  "article_id": "432ceb5e-4d4c-4a39-9410-3bbd836fd748",
  "result_id": "20251118_215151",
  "status": "completed"
}