Analysis Result #1358

{
  "analysis": {
    "input_data": {
      "article": "Title: Kotak Institutional Equities increases weightage on RIL, L\u0026T in model portfolio, Hindalco dropped\n\nPublished: 2025-11-05\n\nContent: Kotak Institutional Equities has removed Hindalco, which had a weightage of 170 basis points from the Model Portfolio. That weightage has been used to increase positions in Reliance Industries and L\u0026amp;T.",
      "full_prompt_sent_to_llm": "=== NEWS ARTICLE ===\nTitle: Kotak Institutional Equities increases weightage on RIL, L\u0026T in model portfolio, Hindalco dropped\n\nPublished: 2025-11-05\n\nContent: Kotak Institutional Equities has removed Hindalco, which had a weightage of 170 basis points from the Model Portfolio. That weightage has been used to increase positions in Reliance Industries and L\u0026amp;T.\n\n=== TOP MATCHING STOCK FROM RAG ===\n\nSymbol: HINDALCO.NS\nCompany: Hindalco Industries Limited\nSector: Basic Materials\nIndustry: Aluminum\nSimilarity Score: 0.3928 (39.28%)\n\nMarket Data:\n\u2022 Current Price: 792.40\n\u2022 Previous Close: 784.95\n\u2022 Day Low: 784.0\n\u2022 Day High: 799.85\n\u2022 52-Week Low: 546.45\n\u2022 52-Week High: 799.85\n\u2022 Volume: 5915977\n\u2022 Avg Volume: 4511864\n\nAdvanced Technical Indicators (21 total):\nClose_3d:786.35,784.95,792.40 | RSI:67.34 | MACD:12.071/11.513/0.558 | BB:796.59/768.22/739.86 | MA:768.22/741.94 | ATR:14.73 | OBV:99,178,514 | WillR:-16.41 | CMF:-0.0368 | Ichi:777.15/765.90/771.52/728.67 | PSAR:768.13 | Aroon:100.00/32.00 | VWAP:687.76 | Force:18459328.71 | Mass:25.86 | Coppock:6.66 | UltOsc:50.68\n\nQuantitative Risk \u0026 Performance Metrics (35 total):\nAvgVol:5,271,788 | Price:792.40 | VaR:-0.0252/-0.0518 | CVaR:-0.0409/-0.0764 | Std:0.0173 | AnnVol:0.2744 | DownDev:0.0186 | Skew:-0.6907 | Kurt:4.7393 | Sharpe:0.4806 | MaxDD:-0.2166 | VolRat:1.8295 | P/MA20:1.0315 | P/MA50:1.0680 | VolReg:0.7903 | Mom:0.0626/0.1478 | MeanRet:0.0006 | W/L:1.19 | Amihud:0.000000 | Roll:0.000000 | VolSurp:0.3947 | Omega:1.1001 | Sortino:0.4983 | TailR:1.0186 | ESRat:1.6218 | Hurst:0.2256 | HalfL:58.11 | Mom120:0.2660 | ApEn:0.5923\n\n=== ANALYZE THE ARTICLE (use RAG context if relevant) ===",
      "rag_context": {
        "company": "Hindalco Industries Limited",
        "country": "India",
        "description_preview": "[STOCK SYMBOL]: HINDALCO.NS\n[COMPANY NAME]: Hindalco Industries Limited\n[SECTOR]: Basic Materials\n[INDUSTRY]: Aluminum\n[COUNTRY]: India\n----------------------------------------------------------------...",
        "full_description": "[STOCK SYMBOL]: HINDALCO.NS\n[COMPANY NAME]: Hindalco Industries Limited\n[SECTOR]: Basic Materials\n[INDUSTRY]: Aluminum\n[COUNTRY]: India\n--------------------------------------------------------------------------------\ncountry - India\nindustry - Aluminum\nsector - Basic Materials\nlongBusinessSummary - Hindalco Industries Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and distributes aluminum and copper products in India, the United States, Brazil, South Korea, the United Kingdom, Germany, China, and internationally. It operates through Novelis, Aluminium Upstream, Aluminium Downstream, and Copper segments. The company offers primary aluminum, such as ingots, wirerods, primary foundry alloys, and billets; flat rolled products, including building and pattern sheets, PCB entry and cold-rolled sheets, closure and fin stocks, cable wrap and lamp cap stocks, foil and litho stocks, spiral fin stocks, circles, hot-rolled plates, cold-rolled coils, and flooring sheets/tread plates; extrusions; and foils, as well as aluminium sheet and light gauge products. It also engages in bauxite and coal mining, refineries, and metal and power; and specialty alumina solutions, including refractory, ceramic, polishing, flame retardant, battery, and water treatment solutions. In addition, the company provides copper wire and recycled rods, alloy rods, IGT tubes, and cathodes; precious metals, such as gold and silver bars, selenium, and platinum group metals; and di-ammonium phosphate, as well as internally grooved copper tube and copper scrap recycling operations. Further, it provides investment, cargo, management, aluminum import and export, engineering, cash management, sales, and welfare services. The company exports its products. It offers its products under the PrizTec, EcoEdge G, EcoEdge C, Everlast, Eternia, Freshwrapp, FUSALOX, and Totalis brands. The company serves the building and construction, batteries and renewable energy, commercial transport, consumer durables, circularity and home solutions, defence and aerospace, electrical and power, industrial machinery, packaging, and personal mobility industries. Hindalco Industries Limited was incorporated in 1958 and is headquartered in Mumbai, India.\nfullTimeEmployees - 78999\npreviousClose - 784.95\nopen - 791.5\ndayLow - 784.0\ndayHigh - 799.85\nregularMarketDayLow - 784.0\nregularMarketDayHigh - 799.85\ndividendRate - 5.0\ndividendYield - 0.64\nexDividendDate - 1754611200\npayoutRatio - 0.046\nfiveYearAvgDividendYield - 0.61\nbeta - 0.987\ntrailingPE - 10.418092\nvolume - 5915977\nregularMarketVolume - 5915977\naverageVolume - 4511864\naverageVolume10days - 4258271\naverageDailyVolume10Day - 4258271\nmarketCap - 1771115118592\nfiftyTwoWeekLow - 546.45\nfiftyTwoWeekHigh - 799.85\npriceToSalesTrailing12Months - 0.7208006\nfiftyDayAverage - 742.629\ntwoHundredDayAverage - 670.653\ntrailingAnnualDividendRate - 5.0\ntrailingAnnualDividendYield - 0.0063698324\ncurrency - INR\nenterpriseValue - 2159537029120\nforwardPE - 11.2144165\nprofitMargins - 0.068909995\nfloatShares - 1395770726\nsharesOutstanding - 2235127576\nheldPercentInsiders - 0.36848998\nheldPercentInstitutions - 0.41693002\nbookValue - 557.136\npriceToBook - 1.422274\nearningsQuarterlyGrowth - 0.303\nnetIncomeToCommon - 169309995008\ntrailingEps - 76.06\nenterpriseToRevenue - 0.879\nenterpriseToEbitda - 6.536\nlastDividendValue - 5.0\nquoteType - EQUITY\ncurrentPrice - 792.4\ntargetHighPrice - 933.0\ntargetLowPrice - 615.0\ntargetMeanPrice - 781.88464\ntargetMedianPrice - 791.0\nrecommendationMean - 2.04\nrecommendationKey - buy\nnumberOfAnalystOpinions - 26\ntotalCash - 239939993600\ntotalCashPerShare - 108.059\nebitda - 330419994624\ntotalDebt - 656419979264\ntotalRevenue - 2457149898752\ndebtToEquity - 53.056\nrevenuePerShare - 1106.423\nreturnOnEquity - 0.14729999\ngrossProfits - 795199995904\nearningsGrowth - 0.303\nrevenueGrowth - 0.127\ngrossMargins - 0.32362998\nebitdaMargins - 0.13447\noperatingMargins - 0.09327\nshortName - HINDALCO  INDUSTRIES  LTD\nlongName - Hindalco Industries Limited\nexchange - NSI\nregularMarketPrice - 792.4\nepsTrailingTwelveMonths - 76.06\nepsCurrentYear - 67.18989\ntrailingPegRatio - None\n--------------------------------------------------------------------------------\n[BUSINESS SUMMARY]\nHindalco Industries Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and distributes aluminum and copper products in India, the United States, Brazil, South Korea, the United Kingdom, Germany, China, and internationally. It operates through Novelis, Aluminium Upstream, Aluminium Downstream, and Copper segments. The company offers primary aluminum, such as ingots, wirerods, primary foundry alloys, and billets; flat rolled products, including building and pattern sheets, PCB entry and cold-rolled sheets, closure and fin stocks, cable wrap and lamp cap stocks, foil and litho stocks, spiral fin stocks, circles, hot-rolled plates, cold-rolled coils, and flooring sheets/tread plates; extrusions; and foils, as well as aluminium sheet and light gauge products. It also engages in bauxite and coal mining, refineries, and metal and power; and specialty alumina solutions, including refractory, ceramic, polishing, flame retardant, battery, and water treatment solutions. In addition, the company provides copper wire and recycled rods, alloy rods, IGT tubes, and cathodes; precious metals, such as gold and silver bars, selenium, and platinum group metals; and di-ammonium phosphate, as well as internally grooved copper tube and copper scrap recycling operations. Further, it provides investment, cargo, management, aluminum import and export, engineering, cash management, sales, and welfare services. The company exports its products. It offers its products under the PrizTec, EcoEdge G, EcoEdge C, Everlast, Eternia, Freshwrapp, FUSALOX, and Totalis brands. The company serves the building and construction, batteries and renewable energy, commercial transport, consumer durables, circularity and home solutions, defence and aerospace, electrical and power, industrial machinery, packaging, and personal mobility industries. Hindalco Industries Limited was incorporated in 1958 and is headquartered in Mumbai, India.\n--------------------------------------------------------------------------------\n[IMPORTANT METRICS]\nCompany: Hindalco Industries Limited\nSector: Basic Materials\nIndustry: Aluminum\nCountry: India\nMarket Cap: 1771.12B\nCurrent Price: 792.4\nP/E Ratio: 10.418092\nP/B Ratio: 1.422274\nDividend Yield: 0.6400%\nROE: 0.1473\nProfit Margin: 0.0689\nBeta: 0.9870\nVolume: 5,915,977\nAvg Volume: 4,511,864\nDay Range: 784.0 - 799.85\n52Wk Range: 546.45 - 799.85\nTotal Revenue: 2457149898752\nTotal Cash: 239.94B\nTotal Debt: 656.42B\nDebt to Equity: 53.056\nTarget Price: 615.0 - 933.0\nAnalyst Opinions: 26\nRecommendation: buy\n--------------------------------------------------------------------------------\n[TECHNICAL] Close_3d:786.35,784.95,792.40 | RSI:67.34 | MACD:12.071/11.513/0.558 | BB:796.59/768.22/739.86 | MA:768.22/741.94 | ATR:14.73 | OBV:99,178,514 | WillR:-16.41 | CMF:-0.0368 | Ichi:777.15/765.90/771.52/728.67 | PSAR:768.13 | Aroon:100.00/32.00 | VWAP:687.76 | Force:18459328.71 | Mass:25.86 | Coppock:6.66 | UltOsc:50.68\n--------------------------------------------------------------------------------\n[QUANT] AvgVol:5,271,788 | Price:792.40 | VaR:-0.0252/-0.0518 | CVaR:-0.0409/-0.0764 | Std:0.0173 | AnnVol:0.2744 | DownDev:0.0186 | Skew:-0.6907 | Kurt:4.7393 | Sharpe:0.4806 | MaxDD:-0.2166 | VolRat:1.8295 | P/MA20:1.0315 | P/MA50:1.0680 | VolReg:0.7903 | Mom:0.0626/0.1478 | MeanRet:0.0006 | W/L:1.19 | Amihud:0.000000 | Roll:0.000000 | VolSurp:0.3947 | Omega:1.1001 | Sortino:0.4983 | TailR:1.0186 | ESRat:1.6218 | Hurst:0.2256 | HalfL:58.11 | Mom120:0.2660 | ApEn:0.5923",
        "industry": "Aluminum",
        "sector": "Basic Materials",
        "similarity_score": 0.392756462,
        "symbol": "HINDALCO.NS"
      }
    },
    "llm_analysis": {
      "actionable_summary": {
        "action": "sell",
        "bias": "bearish",
        "headline": "Kotak dumps Hindalco from model portfolio",
        "rationale": "Institutional exit signals distribution phase"
      },
      "between_lines": "Kotak\u0027s exit may signal peak cycle concerns for Hindalco",
      "confidence_score": 65,
      "connections": {
        "affects_directly": [
          "Hindalco"
        ],
        "affects_indirectly": [
          "RIL",
          "L\u0026T"
        ],
        "cause_effect_chain": "Kotak removal \u2192 selling pressure \u2192 price weakness",
        "follow_the_money": "Flows into RIL \u0026 L\u0026T"
      },
      "core": {
        "action": "selling",
        "momentum": "fading",
        "momentum_reasoning": "Removal by major institutional house signals waning institutional confidence",
        "sector": "Basic Materials",
        "topic": "portfolio rebalancing",
        "trigger": "Kotak removes Hindalco from model portfolio"
      },
      "cross_stock_impact": [
        {
          "impact_strength": 0.4,
          "impact_type": "positive",
          "reasoning": "Weightage increase inflows",
          "symbol": "RELIANCE.NS"
        },
        {
          "impact_strength": 0.3,
          "impact_type": "positive",
          "reasoning": "Portfolio allocation boost",
          "symbol": "LT.NS"
        }
      ],
      "data_quality": {
        "article_length_tokens": 45,
        "has_financial_data": false,
        "has_price_data": false,
        "has_sentiment_indicators": true,
        "missing_critical_info": [
          "price impact",
          "volume data",
          "fundamental rationale"
        ],
        "overall_quality_score": 0.4
      },
      "deals": {
        "counterparty": [],
        "deal_currency": null,
        "deal_size": null,
        "deal_type": null
      },
      "entities": [
        {
          "name": "Hindalco Industries",
          "role": "victim",
          "ticker": "HINDALCO.NS",
          "type": "company"
        },
        {
          "name": "Kotak Institutional Equities",
          "role": "seller",
          "ticker": null,
          "type": "fund"
        },
        {
          "name": "Reliance Industries",
          "role": "winner",
          "ticker": "RELIANCE.NS",
          "type": "company"
        },
        {
          "name": "Larsen \u0026 Toubro",
          "role": "winner",
          "ticker": "LT.NS",
          "type": "company"
        }
      ],
      "financials": {
        "buyback": null,
        "data_source": "null",
        "dividend": null,
        "funding_amount": null,
        "guidance": null,
        "profit": null,
        "revenue": null,
        "valuation": null
      },
      "market_reaction": {
        "expected_impact": "Negative sentiment on metals pack",
        "index_impact": [
          "NIFTY Metal"
        ],
        "price_change": null,
        "volume_change": null
      },
      "numerical_extractions": {
        "fiscal_period": null,
        "mentioned_prices": [],
        "mentioned_targets": [],
        "poll_source": null,
        "profit_change_pct": null,
        "revenue_change_pct": null,
        "volume_growth_yoy_pct": null
      },
      "patterns": {
        "pattern_reasoning": "Institutional selling pressure likely as Kotak reallocates 170 bps away",
        "pattern_type": "distribution",
        "similar_past_event": null,
        "stage": "middle",
        "strength": "moderate"
      },
      "rag_alignment": {
        "rag_company_relevant": "partial",
        "relevance_reasoning": "Article mentions Hindalco removal from Kotak model portfolio; RAG shows 39.28% similarity, indirect relevance",
        "should_prioritize_rag": false,
        "similarity_interpretation": "weak_connection"
      },
      "reasoning_chain": [
        "Kotak removes 170 bps weightage",
        "Reallocates to RIL \u0026 L\u0026T",
        "Hindalco near 52w high",
        "Technical indicators mixed",
        "Institutional exit pressure expected"
      ],
      "red_flags": [
        "Contradiction: News negative but RSI 67 suggests strength",
        "Hurst 0.23 indicates mean-reversion risk",
        "CMF negative despite price near 52w high"
      ],
      "sentiment": {
        "confidence": 0.8,
        "direction": "negative",
        "drivers": [
          "institutional exit",
          "portfolio downgrade",
          "weightage removal"
        ],
        "intensity": 0.6
      },
      "signals": {
        "crowd_behavior": {
          "source": "inference",
          "value": "profit_booking"
        },
        "key_levels": {
          "source": "rag",
          "values": [
            "784.0",
            "799.85"
          ]
        },
        "price_action_expected": {
          "source": "inference",
          "value": "grind_down"
        },
        "reaction_reasoning": "volume_multiple 1.31 suggests elevated selling pressure post-announcement",
        "volume_expectation": {
          "source": "inference",
          "value": "surge"
        }
      },
      "smart_money": {
        "big_players": [
          "Kotak Institutional Equities"
        ],
        "evidence": "Institutional exit typically precedes retail selling",
        "retail_position": "opposite",
        "their_likely_motive": "Rebalance towards RIL \u0026 L\u0026T"
      },
      "timing": {
        "catalyst_date": null,
        "expected_duration_days": 7,
        "temporal_anchor": "2025-11-05",
        "urgency": "this_week"
      },
      "trading_angles": [
        {
          "conviction": "medium",
          "idea": "Short on rallies towards \u20b9795-800",
          "reasoning": "Institutional exit creates overhead supply",
          "risk": "Strong metals cycle"
        },
        {
          "conviction": "high",
          "idea": "Avoid longs until re-entry signals",
          "reasoning": "Technical momentum fading with Hurst 0.23",
          "risk": "Value trap"
        }
      ]
    },
    "metrics": {
      "model_params": {
        "max_completion_tokens": 8192,
        "model": "moonshotai/kimi-k2-instruct-0905",
        "reasoning_effort": "medium",
        "stream": false,
        "temperature": 0.4,
        "top_p": 0.9
      },
      "timing": {
        "end_time": "2025-11-05T05:04:38.037373",
        "llm_response_seconds": 3.703,
        "rag_query_seconds": 1.0,
        "start_time": "2025-11-05T05:04:33.333651",
        "total_duration_seconds": 4.704
      },
      "tokens": {
        "actual_from_api": {
          "input_tokens": 4650,
          "output_tokens": 1199,
          "total_tokens": 5849
        }
      }
    },
    "rag_match": {
      "company": "Hindalco Industries Limited",
      "sector": "Basic Materials",
      "similarity_score": 0.392756462,
      "symbol": "HINDALCO.NS"
    },
    "timestamp": "2025-11-05T05:04:38.037465"
  },
  "article_id": "ec1c35d4-1113-470e-9ad0-5b6f5caef0e9",
  "result_id": "20251105_050438",
  "status": "completed"
}