Analysis Result #1355

{
  "analysis": {
    "input_data": {
      "article": "Title: SoftBank stock price tanks over 14%; erodes nearly $50 billion in market cap over two days\n\nPublished: 2025-11-05\n\nContent: SoftBank stock has proven to be a multibagger stock as it has surged nearly 206 per cent in just six months and 154 per cent in one year.",
      "full_prompt_sent_to_llm": "=== NEWS ARTICLE ===\nTitle: SoftBank stock price tanks over 14%; erodes nearly $50 billion in market cap over two days\n\nPublished: 2025-11-05\n\nContent: SoftBank stock has proven to be a multibagger stock as it has surged nearly 206 per cent in just six months and 154 per cent in one year.\n\n=== TOP MATCHING STOCK FROM RAG ===\n\nSymbol: HDFCBANK.NS\nCompany: HDFC Bank Limited\nSector: Financial Services\nIndustry: Banks - Regional\nSimilarity Score: 0.3671 (36.71%)\n\nMarket Data:\n\u2022 Current Price: 1008.80\n\u2022 Previous Close: 1007.7\n\u2022 Day Low: 1006.0\n\u2022 Day High: 1020.5\n\u2022 52-Week Low: 812.15\n\u2022 52-Week High: 1020.5\n\u2022 Volume: 43523956\n\u2022 Avg Volume: 17638950\n\nAdvanced Technical Indicators (21 total):\nClose_3d:1002.95,1007.70,1008.80 | RSI:73.23 | MACD:9.730/5.292/4.439 | BB:1016.27/975.95/935.64 | MA:975.95/973.87 | ATR:13.93 | OBV:192,979,547 | WillR:-17.08 | CMF:0.0409 | Ichi:993.75/979.80/986.77/979.80 | PSAR:987.21 | Aroon:100.00/36.00 | VWAP:972.08 | Force:68686380.52 | Mass:25.75 | Coppock:7.19 | UltOsc:56.13\n\nQuantitative Risk \u0026 Performance Metrics (35 total):\nAvgVol:22,967,592 | Price:1008.80 | VaR:-0.0159/-0.0261 | CVaR:-0.0225/-0.0310 | Std:0.0105 | AnnVol:0.1664 | DownDev:0.0102 | Skew:0.0059 | Kurt:0.9880 | Sharpe:0.9939 | MaxDD:-0.1293 | VolRat:1.1094 | P/MA20:1.0337 | P/MA50:1.0359 | VolReg:0.9063 | Mom:0.0463/-0.0008 | MeanRet:0.0007 | W/L:1.09 | Amihud:0.000000 | Roll:3.646636 | VolSurp:1.0580 | Omega:1.1999 | Sortino:1.1173 | TailR:1.1524 | ESRat:1.4168 | Hurst:0.2420 | HalfL:71.97 | Mom120:0.0640 | ApEn:0.4889\n\n=== ANALYZE THE ARTICLE (use RAG context if relevant) ===",
      "rag_context": {
        "company": "HDFC Bank Limited",
        "country": "India",
        "description_preview": "[STOCK SYMBOL]: HDFCBANK.NS\n[COMPANY NAME]: HDFC Bank Limited\n[SECTOR]: Financial Services\n[INDUSTRY]: Banks - Regional\n[COUNTRY]: India\n---------------------------------------------------------------...",
        "full_description": "[STOCK SYMBOL]: HDFCBANK.NS\n[COMPANY NAME]: HDFC Bank Limited\n[SECTOR]: Financial Services\n[INDUSTRY]: Banks - Regional\n[COUNTRY]: India\n--------------------------------------------------------------------------------\ncountry - India\nindustry - Banks - Regional\nsector - Financial Services\nlongBusinessSummary - HDFC Bank Limited provides banking and financial products and services to individuals and businesses in India, Bahrain, Hong Kong, Singapore, and Dubai. The company operates through Treasury, Retail Banking, Wholesale Banking, Other Banking Business, Insurance Business, and Other segments. It offers savings, salary, current, rural, public provident fund, pension, and demat accounts; fixed and recurring deposits; and safe deposit lockers, as well as offshore accounts and deposits, and overdrafts against fixed deposits. The company also provides personal, home, car, two-wheeler, business, doctor, educational, gold, consumer, and rural loans; loans against properties, securities, mutual funds, rental receivables, and assets; loans for professionals; government sponsored programs; and loans on credit card, as well as working capital and commercial/construction equipment finance, healthcare/medical equipment, commercial vehicle finance, dealer finance, and term loans. In addition, it offers credit, debit, prepaid, forex, and kisan gold cards; payment and collection, export, import, remittance, bank guarantee, letter of credit, trade, hedging, and merchant and cash management services; and insurance and investment products. Further, the company provides short term finance, bill discounting, structured finance, export credit, loan repayment, custodial, and documents collection services; online, mobile, and phone banking services; unified payment interface, immediate payment, national electronic funds transfer, and real time gross settlement services; channel financing, vendor financing, reimbursement account, money market, derivatives, employee trusts, cash surplus corporates, tax payment, and bankers to rights/public issue services; and financial solutions for supply chain partners and agricultural customers. It operates branches and automated teller machines in various cities/towns. The company was incorporated in 1994 and is headquartered in Mumbai, India.\nfullTimeEmployees - 220339\npreviousClose - 1007.7\nopen - 1016.0\ndayLow - 1006.0\ndayHigh - 1020.5\nregularMarketDayLow - 1006.0\nregularMarketDayHigh - 1020.5\ndividendRate - 11.0\ndividendYield - 1.09\nexDividendDate - 1753401600\npayoutRatio - 0.2515\nfiveYearAvgDividendYield - 0.67\nbeta - 0.577\ntrailingPE - 23.06883\nforwardPE - 10.469074\nvolume - 43523956\nregularMarketVolume - 43523956\naverageVolume - 17638950\naverageVolume10days - 18376070\naverageDailyVolume10Day - 18376070\nmarketCap - 15498859249664\nfiftyTwoWeekLow - 812.15\nfiftyTwoWeekHigh - 1020.5\npriceToSalesTrailing12Months - 5.775176\nfiftyDayAverage - 972.726\ntwoHundredDayAverage - 939.72687\ntrailingAnnualDividendRate - 0.0\ntrailingAnnualDividendYield - 0.0\ncurrency - INR\nenterpriseValue - 19897627181056\nprofitMargins - 0.26962999\nfloatShares - 15296322599\nsharesOutstanding - 15363659145\nheldPercentInsiders - 0.0015\nheldPercentInstitutions - 0.56078\nbookValue - 354.079\npriceToBook - 2.8490815\nearningsQuarterlyGrowth - 0.128\nnetIncomeToCommon - 723600670720\ntrailingEps - 43.73\nforwardEps - 96.36\nenterpriseToRevenue - 7.414\nlastDividendValue - 2.5\nquoteType - EQUITY\ncurrentPrice - 1008.8\ntargetHighPrice - 1390.0\ntargetLowPrice - 1046.0\ntargetMeanPrice - 1160.3334\ntargetMedianPrice - 1155.0\nrecommendationMean - 1.30769\nrecommendationKey - strong_buy\nnumberOfAnalystOpinions - 39\ntotalCash - 1770578640896\ntotalCashPerShare - 115.386\ntotalDebt - 5995072323584\ntotalRevenue - 2683703394304\nrevenuePerShare - 175.243\nreturnOnAssets - 0.01653\nreturnOnEquity - 0.108430006\ngrossProfits - 2683703394304\nearningsGrowth - 0.119\nrevenueGrowth - 0.654\ngrossMargins - 0.0\nebitdaMargins - 0.0\noperatingMargins - 0.39472\nshortName - HDFC BANK LTD\nlongName - HDFC Bank Limited\nregularMarketPrice - 1008.8\nexchange - NSI\nepsTrailingTwelveMonths - 43.73\nepsCurrentYear - 49.06062\ntrailingPegRatio - None\n--------------------------------------------------------------------------------\n[BUSINESS SUMMARY]\nHDFC Bank Limited provides banking and financial products and services to individuals and businesses in India, Bahrain, Hong Kong, Singapore, and Dubai. The company operates through Treasury, Retail Banking, Wholesale Banking, Other Banking Business, Insurance Business, and Other segments. It offers savings, salary, current, rural, public provident fund, pension, and demat accounts; fixed and recurring deposits; and safe deposit lockers, as well as offshore accounts and deposits, and overdrafts against fixed deposits. The company also provides personal, home, car, two-wheeler, business, doctor, educational, gold, consumer, and rural loans; loans against properties, securities, mutual funds, rental receivables, and assets; loans for professionals; government sponsored programs; and loans on credit card, as well as working capital and commercial/construction equipment finance, healthcare/medical equipment, commercial vehicle finance, dealer finance, and term loans. In addition, it offers credit, debit, prepaid, forex, and kisan gold cards; payment and collection, export, import, remittance, bank guarantee, letter of credit, trade, hedging, and merchant and cash management services; and insurance and investment products. Further, the company provides short term finance, bill discounting, structured finance, export credit, loan repayment, custodial, and documents collection services; online, mobile, and phone banking services; unified payment interface, immediate payment, national electronic funds transfer, and real time gross settlement services; channel financing, vendor financing, reimbursement account, money market, derivatives, employee trusts, cash surplus corporates, tax payment, and bankers to rights/public issue services; and financial solutions for supply chain partners and agricultural customers. It operates branches and automated teller machines in various cities/towns. The company was incorporated in 1994 and is headquartered in Mumbai, India.\n--------------------------------------------------------------------------------\n[IMPORTANT METRICS]\nCompany: HDFC Bank Limited\nSector: Financial Services\nIndustry: Banks - Regional\nCountry: India\nMarket Cap: 15498.86B\nCurrent Price: 1008.8\nP/E Ratio: 23.06883\nP/B Ratio: 2.8490815\nDividend Yield: 1.0900%\nROA: 0.0165\nROE: 0.1084\nProfit Margin: 0.2696\nBeta: 0.5770\nVolume: 43,523,956\nAvg Volume: 17,638,950\nDay Range: 1006.0 - 1020.5\n52Wk Range: 812.15 - 1020.5\nTotal Revenue: 2683703394304\nTotal Cash: 1770.58B\nTotal Debt: 5995.07B\nTarget Price: 1046.0 - 1390.0\nAnalyst Opinions: 39\nRecommendation: strong_buy\n--------------------------------------------------------------------------------\n[TECHNICAL] Close_3d:1002.95,1007.70,1008.80 | RSI:73.23 | MACD:9.730/5.292/4.439 | BB:1016.27/975.95/935.64 | MA:975.95/973.87 | ATR:13.93 | OBV:192,979,547 | WillR:-17.08 | CMF:0.0409 | Ichi:993.75/979.80/986.77/979.80 | PSAR:987.21 | Aroon:100.00/36.00 | VWAP:972.08 | Force:68686380.52 | Mass:25.75 | Coppock:7.19 | UltOsc:56.13\n--------------------------------------------------------------------------------\n[QUANT] AvgVol:22,967,592 | Price:1008.80 | VaR:-0.0159/-0.0261 | CVaR:-0.0225/-0.0310 | Std:0.0105 | AnnVol:0.1664 | DownDev:0.0102 | Skew:0.0059 | Kurt:0.9880 | Sharpe:0.9939 | MaxDD:-0.1293 | VolRat:1.1094 | P/MA20:1.0337 | P/MA50:1.0359 | VolReg:0.9063 | Mom:0.0463/-0.0008 | MeanRet:0.0007 | W/L:1.09 | Amihud:0.000000 | Roll:3.646636 | VolSurp:1.0580 | Omega:1.1999 | Sortino:1.1173 | TailR:1.1524 | ESRat:1.4168 | Hurst:0.2420 | HalfL:71.97 | Mom120:0.0640 | ApEn:0.4889",
        "industry": "Banks - Regional",
        "sector": "Financial Services",
        "similarity_score": 0.367055923,
        "symbol": "HDFCBANK.NS"
      }
    },
    "llm_analysis": {
      "actionable_summary": {
        "action": "sell",
        "bias": "bearish",
        "headline": "SoftBank crashes 14 % in two days after 206 % rally",
        "rationale": "Momentum reversal underway; avoid until selling climax completes"
      },
      "between_lines": "Market may have run too far too fast; abrupt reversal hints at leveraged unwinding",
      "confidence_score": 75,
      "connections": {
        "affects_directly": [
          "SoftBank"
        ],
        "affects_indirectly": [
          "SVF portfolio companies",
          "global tech names",
          "Japanese equity ETFs"
        ],
        "cause_effect_chain": "Parabolic rise \u2192 valuation exhaustion \u2192 trigger selling \u2192 margin calls \u2192 accelerated dump",
        "follow_the_money": "forced selling by leveraged momentum players"
      },
      "core": {
        "action": "dump",
        "momentum": "reversing",
        "momentum_reasoning": "206 % six-month rally followed by 14 % two-day drop signals sharp reversal",
        "sector": "Technology",
        "topic": "stock crash",
        "trigger": "$50 bn market-cap wipe-out in two days"
      },
      "cross_stock_impact": [
        {
          "impact_strength": 1.0,
          "impact_type": "negative",
          "reasoning": "Direct SoftBank listing impact",
          "symbol": "9984.T"
        },
        {
          "impact_strength": 0.9,
          "impact_type": "negative",
          "reasoning": "Domestic Japanese ETF inclusion",
          "symbol": "TSE:SoftBank"
        }
      ],
      "data_quality": {
        "article_length_tokens": 45,
        "has_financial_data": false,
        "has_price_data": true,
        "has_sentiment_indicators": true,
        "missing_critical_info": [
          "volume",
          "specific price levels",
          "trigger reason"
        ],
        "overall_quality_score": 0.5
      },
      "deals": {
        "counterparty": [],
        "deal_currency": null,
        "deal_size": null,
        "deal_type": null
      },
      "entities": [
        {
          "name": "SoftBank",
          "role": "victim",
          "ticker": null,
          "type": "company"
        }
      ],
      "financials": {
        "buyback": null,
        "data_source": null,
        "dividend": null,
        "funding_amount": null,
        "guidance": null,
        "profit": null,
        "revenue": null,
        "valuation": null
      },
      "market_reaction": {
        "expected_impact": "Inference: Negative sentiment spill-over to high-beta tech names",
        "index_impact": [
          "Nikkei 225",
          "global tech ETFs"
        ],
        "price_change": "-14 %",
        "volume_change": null
      },
      "numerical_extractions": {
        "fiscal_period": null,
        "mentioned_prices": [],
        "mentioned_targets": [],
        "poll_source": null,
        "profit_change_pct": null,
        "revenue_change_pct": null,
        "volume_growth_yoy_pct": null
      },
      "patterns": {
        "pattern_reasoning": "Vertical rally (+206 %/6 m) followed by vertical drop (-14 %/2 d) textbook dump",
        "pattern_type": "dump",
        "similar_past_event": null,
        "stage": "completed",
        "strength": "strong"
      },
      "rag_alignment": {
        "rag_company_relevant": "no",
        "relevance_reasoning": "RAG similarity 0.3671 \u003c 0.4; article about SoftBank, RAG data is HDFC Bank \u2013 different companies, sectors, and exchanges",
        "should_prioritize_rag": false,
        "similarity_interpretation": "weak_connection"
      },
      "reasoning_chain": [
        "206 % six-month surge sets up overbought conditions",
        "14 % two-day crash erases $50 bn market cap",
        "No fundamental news cited, likely technical/profit-taking driven",
        "High volatility expected to continue short-term"
      ],
      "red_flags": [
        "No specific price levels or volume data given",
        "Article lacks trigger for the crash",
        "Prior 206 % six-month surge indicates bubble risk"
      ],
      "sentiment": {
        "confidence": 0.8,
        "direction": "negative",
        "drivers": [
          "14 % price crash",
          "$50 bn market-cap loss",
          "steep prior rally raising profit-booking"
        ],
        "intensity": 0.85
      },
      "signals": {
        "crowd_behavior": {
          "source": "inference",
          "value": "panic"
        },
        "key_levels": {
          "source": "article",
          "values": []
        },
        "price_action_expected": {
          "source": "article",
          "value": "dump"
        },
        "reaction_reasoning": "14 % drop in two days implies panic selling with volume surge",
        "volume_expectation": {
          "source": "inference",
          "value": "surge"
        }
      },
      "smart_money": {
        "big_players": [
          "institutional holders",
          "momentum funds"
        ],
        "evidence": "Retail often chases tops while institutions distribute",
        "retail_position": "opposite",
        "their_likely_motive": "rush to lock gains after parabolic rise"
      },
      "timing": {
        "catalyst_date": null,
        "expected_duration_days": 3,
        "temporal_anchor": "2025-11-05",
        "urgency": "immediate"
      },
      "trading_angles": [
        {
          "conviction": "high",
          "idea": "Avoid catching falling knife; wait for stabilization",
          "reasoning": "No support levels mentioned; momentum reversal in progress",
          "risk": "dead-cat bounce or further sell-off"
        }
      ]
    },
    "metrics": {
      "model_params": {
        "max_completion_tokens": 8192,
        "model": "moonshotai/kimi-k2-instruct-0905",
        "reasoning_effort": "medium",
        "stream": false,
        "temperature": 0.4,
        "top_p": 0.9
      },
      "timing": {
        "end_time": "2025-11-05T04:20:37.824621",
        "llm_response_seconds": 3.47,
        "rag_query_seconds": 1.074,
        "start_time": "2025-11-05T04:20:33.280340",
        "total_duration_seconds": 4.544
      },
      "tokens": {
        "actual_from_api": {
          "input_tokens": 4649,
          "output_tokens": 918,
          "total_tokens": 5567
        }
      }
    },
    "rag_match": {
      "company": "HDFC Bank Limited",
      "sector": "Financial Services",
      "similarity_score": 0.367055923,
      "symbol": "HDFCBANK.NS"
    },
    "timestamp": "2025-11-05T04:20:37.824745"
  },
  "article_id": "9b0cb0ed-736a-4654-a492-c094eae5d3e7",
  "result_id": "20251105_042037",
  "status": "completed"
}