Analysis Result #1354

{
  "analysis": {
    "input_data": {
      "article": "Title: $500 billion wiped out: Global chip sell-off spreads from Wall Street to Asia\n\nPublished: 2025-11-05\n\nContent: The Philadelphia SOX gauge is trading near 28 times estimate forward earnings, compared with its five-year average of less than 22 times.",
      "full_prompt_sent_to_llm": "=== NEWS ARTICLE ===\nTitle: $500 billion wiped out: Global chip sell-off spreads from Wall Street to Asia\n\nPublished: 2025-11-05\n\nContent: The Philadelphia SOX gauge is trading near 28 times estimate forward earnings, compared with its five-year average of less than 22 times.\n\n=== TOP MATCHING STOCK FROM RAG ===\n\nSymbol: MCX.NS\nCompany: Multi Commodity Exchange of India Limited\nSector: Financial Services\nIndustry: Financial Data \u0026 Stock Exchanges\nSimilarity Score: 0.2288 (22.88%)\n\nMarket Data:\n\u2022 Current Price: 9259.00\n\u2022 Previous Close: 9187.0\n\u2022 Day Low: 9041.5\n\u2022 Day High: 9348.0\n\u2022 52-Week Low: 4408.15\n\u2022 52-Week High: 9617.0\n\u2022 Volume: 593329\n\u2022 Avg Volume: 529974\n\nAdvanced Technical Indicators (21 total):\nClose_3d:9195.00,9187.00,9259.00 | RSI:69.80 | MACD:376.334/315.390/60.944 | BB:9828.18/8596.95/7365.72 | MA:8596.95/8153.63 | ATR:250.65 | OBV:20,072,911 | WillR:-21.87 | CMF:0.1378 | Ichi:9116.00/8612.00/8864.00/8460.50 | PSAR:9566.69 | Aroon:80.00/4.00 | VWAP:7820.92 | Force:87807485.81 | Mass:25.98 | Coppock:28.55 | UltOsc:53.97\n\nQuantitative Risk \u0026 Performance Metrics (35 total):\nAvgVol:522,680 | Price:9259.00 | VaR:-0.0387/-0.0609 | CVaR:-0.0548/-0.0737 | Std:0.0251 | AnnVol:0.3988 | DownDev:0.0242 | Skew:-0.0782 | Kurt:0.7300 | Sharpe:1.0018 | MaxDD:-0.3467 | VolRat:2.6586 | P/MA20:1.0770 | P/MA50:1.1356 | VolReg:0.9786 | Mom:0.1589/0.1250 | MeanRet:0.0016 | W/L:1.04 | Amihud:0.000000 | Roll:0.000000 | VolSurp:-0.0379 | Omega:1.1883 | Sortino:1.0796 | TailR:1.1317 | ESRat:1.4160 | Hurst:0.2590 | HalfL:788.24 | Mom120:0.4793 | ApEn:0.4464\n\n=== ANALYZE THE ARTICLE (use RAG context if relevant) ===",
      "rag_context": {
        "company": "Multi Commodity Exchange of India Limited",
        "country": "India",
        "description_preview": "[STOCK SYMBOL]: MCX.NS\n[COMPANY NAME]: Multi Commodity Exchange of India Limited\n[SECTOR]: Financial Services\n[INDUSTRY]: Financial Data \u0026 Stock Exchanges\n[COUNTRY]: India\n----------------------------...",
        "full_description": "[STOCK SYMBOL]: MCX.NS\n[COMPANY NAME]: Multi Commodity Exchange of India Limited\n[SECTOR]: Financial Services\n[INDUSTRY]: Financial Data \u0026 Stock Exchanges\n[COUNTRY]: India\n--------------------------------------------------------------------------------\ncountry - India\nindustry - Financial Data \u0026 Stock Exchanges\nsector - Financial Services\nlongBusinessSummary - Multi Commodity Exchange of India Limited, a commodity derivatives exchange, provides a platform to facilitate online trading of commodity derivatives in India. It offers iCOMDEX, a real-time commodity futures price indices; and trades in bullion, base metals, energy, and agricultural commodities. The company also provides clearing and settlement services; and data feed subscription and membership services. It has strategic alliances, consultancy, and collaboration agreements with various exchanges, such as CME Group, Dalian Commodity Exchange, London Metal Exchange, European Energy Exchange AG, Taiwan Futures Exchange, and Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, Jakarta Futures Exchange, and Chittagong Stock Exchange Limited. The company was incorporated in 2002 and is based in Mumbai, India.\nfullTimeEmployees - 400\npreviousClose - 9187.0\nopen - 9152.5\ndayLow - 9041.5\ndayHigh - 9348.0\nregularMarketDayLow - 9041.5\nregularMarketDayHigh - 9348.0\ndividendRate - 30.0\ndividendYield - 0.33\nexDividendDate - 1754611200\npayoutRatio - 0.059699997\nfiveYearAvgDividendYield - 1.11\nbeta - 0.391\ntrailingPE - 72.505875\nforwardPE - 181.72719\nvolume - 593329\nregularMarketVolume - 593329\naverageVolume - 529974\naverageVolume10days - 854886\naverageDailyVolume10Day - 854886\nmarketCap - 478568382464\nfiftyTwoWeekLow - 4408.15\nfiftyTwoWeekHigh - 9617.0\npriceToSalesTrailing12Months - 35.15034\nfiftyDayAverage - 8123.26\ntwoHundredDayAverage - 6893.63\ntrailingAnnualDividendRate - 0.0\ntrailingAnnualDividendYield - 0.0\ncurrency - INR\nenterpriseValue - 444272443392\nprofitMargins - 0.47911\nfloatShares - 43284468\nsharesOutstanding - 50902818\nheldPercentInsiders - 0.15041\nheldPercentInstitutions - 0.53049\nbookValue - 551.854\npriceToBook - 16.777988\nearningsQuarterlyGrowth - 0.832\nnetIncomeToCommon - 6523100160\ntrailingEps - 127.7\nforwardEps - 50.95\nenterpriseToRevenue - 32.631\nenterpriseToEbitda - 49.81\nlastDividendValue - 30.0\nquoteType - EQUITY\ncurrentPrice - 9259.0\ntargetHighPrice - 10000.0\ntargetLowPrice - 5860.0\ntargetMeanPrice - 8493.375\ntargetMedianPrice - 8500.0\nrecommendationMean - 2.5\nrecommendationKey - buy\nnumberOfAnalystOpinions - 8\ntotalCash - 24288499712\ntotalCashPerShare - 476.231\nebitda - 8919324672\ntotalDebt - 10100000\ntotalRevenue - 13614900224\ndebtToEquity - 0.036\nrevenuePerShare - 266.974\ngrossProfits - 12832900096\nearningsGrowth - 0.832\nrevenueGrowth - 0.603\ngrossMargins - 0.94255996\nebitdaMargins - 0.65511\noperatingMargins - 0.63321\nexchange - NSI\nlongName - Multi Commodity Exchange of India Limited\nregularMarketPrice - 9259.0\nepsTrailingTwelveMonths - 127.7\nepsCurrentYear - 156.60825\nshortName - MULTI COMMODITY EXCHANGE\ntrailingPegRatio - None\n--------------------------------------------------------------------------------\n[BUSINESS SUMMARY]\nMulti Commodity Exchange of India Limited, a commodity derivatives exchange, provides a platform to facilitate online trading of commodity derivatives in India. It offers iCOMDEX, a real-time commodity futures price indices; and trades in bullion, base metals, energy, and agricultural commodities. The company also provides clearing and settlement services; and data feed subscription and membership services. It has strategic alliances, consultancy, and collaboration agreements with various exchanges, such as CME Group, Dalian Commodity Exchange, London Metal Exchange, European Energy Exchange AG, Taiwan Futures Exchange, and Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, Jakarta Futures Exchange, and Chittagong Stock Exchange Limited. The company was incorporated in 2002 and is based in Mumbai, India.\n--------------------------------------------------------------------------------\n[IMPORTANT METRICS]\nCompany: Multi Commodity Exchange of India Limited\nSector: Financial Services\nIndustry: Financial Data \u0026 Stock Exchanges\nCountry: India\nMarket Cap: 478.57B\nCurrent Price: 9259.0\nP/E Ratio: 72.505875\nP/B Ratio: 16.777988\nDividend Yield: 0.3300%\nProfit Margin: 0.4791\nBeta: 0.3910\nVolume: 593,329\nAvg Volume: 529,974\nDay Range: 9041.5 - 9348.0\n52Wk Range: 4408.15 - 9617.0\nTotal Revenue: 13614900224\nTotal Cash: 24.29B\nTotal Debt: 10.10M\nDebt to Equity: 0.036\nTarget Price: 5860.0 - 10000.0\nAnalyst Opinions: 8\nRecommendation: buy\n--------------------------------------------------------------------------------\n[TECHNICAL] Close_3d:9195.00,9187.00,9259.00 | RSI:69.80 | MACD:376.334/315.390/60.944 | BB:9828.18/8596.95/7365.72 | MA:8596.95/8153.63 | ATR:250.65 | OBV:20,072,911 | WillR:-21.87 | CMF:0.1378 | Ichi:9116.00/8612.00/8864.00/8460.50 | PSAR:9566.69 | Aroon:80.00/4.00 | VWAP:7820.92 | Force:87807485.81 | Mass:25.98 | Coppock:28.55 | UltOsc:53.97\n--------------------------------------------------------------------------------\n[QUANT] AvgVol:522,680 | Price:9259.00 | VaR:-0.0387/-0.0609 | CVaR:-0.0548/-0.0737 | Std:0.0251 | AnnVol:0.3988 | DownDev:0.0242 | Skew:-0.0782 | Kurt:0.7300 | Sharpe:1.0018 | MaxDD:-0.3467 | VolRat:2.6586 | P/MA20:1.0770 | P/MA50:1.1356 | VolReg:0.9786 | Mom:0.1589/0.1250 | MeanRet:0.0016 | W/L:1.04 | Amihud:0.000000 | Roll:0.000000 | VolSurp:-0.0379 | Omega:1.1883 | Sortino:1.0796 | TailR:1.1317 | ESRat:1.4160 | Hurst:0.2590 | HalfL:788.24 | Mom120:0.4793 | ApEn:0.4464",
        "industry": "Financial Data \u0026 Stock Exchanges",
        "sector": "Financial Services",
        "similarity_score": 0.228796974,
        "symbol": "MCX.NS"
      }
    },
    "llm_analysis": {
      "actionable_summary": {
        "action": "sell",
        "bias": "bearish",
        "headline": "Global chip rout deepens on stretched valuations",
        "rationale": "Valuation mean-reversion trade unfolding across regions"
      },
      "between_lines": "Market signalling semiconductor cycle peak; watch for forced selling",
      "confidence_score": 78,
      "connections": {
        "affects_directly": [
          "chip designers",
          "foundries",
          "equipment makers"
        ],
        "affects_indirectly": [
          "Asian tech indices",
          "US SOX constituents"
        ],
        "cause_effect_chain": "SOX over-valuation \u2192 profit-taking \u2192 margin calls \u2192 regional contagion \u2192 further selling",
        "follow_the_money": "out of semis into cash/lower-risk assets"
      },
      "core": {
        "action": "dump",
        "momentum": "building",
        "momentum_reasoning": "$500bn wiped out and multiple markets hit signals broadening sell-off",
        "sector": "Technology",
        "topic": "global semiconductor valuation reset",
        "trigger": "Philadelphia SOX trading at 28\u00d7 forward vs 5-yr avg 22\u00d7"
      },
      "cross_stock_impact": [
        {
          "impact_strength": 0.9,
          "impact_type": "negative",
          "reasoning": "SOX heavyweight",
          "symbol": "NVDA"
        },
        {
          "impact_strength": 0.8,
          "impact_type": "negative",
          "reasoning": "Asian chip leader",
          "symbol": "TSMC"
        },
        {
          "impact_strength": 0.05,
          "impact_type": "neutral",
          "reasoning": "No semiconductor exposure",
          "symbol": "MCX.NS"
        }
      ],
      "data_quality": {
        "article_length_tokens": 45,
        "has_financial_data": true,
        "has_price_data": false,
        "has_sentiment_indicators": true,
        "missing_critical_info": [
          "specific stocks",
          "support levels",
          "policy response"
        ],
        "overall_quality_score": 0.55
      },
      "deals": {
        "counterparty": [],
        "deal_currency": null,
        "deal_size": null,
        "deal_type": null
      },
      "entities": [
        {
          "name": "Philadelphia SOX",
          "role": "victim",
          "ticker": null,
          "type": "index"
        }
      ],
      "financials": {
        "buyback": null,
        "data_source": "article",
        "dividend": null,
        "funding_amount": null,
        "guidance": null,
        "profit": null,
        "revenue": null,
        "valuation": 28
      },
      "market_reaction": {
        "expected_impact": "Further 10-15% downside until P/E normalises",
        "index_impact": [
          "SOX",
          "Asian chip indices"
        ],
        "price_change": null,
        "volume_change": null
      },
      "numerical_extractions": {
        "fiscal_period": null,
        "mentioned_prices": [],
        "mentioned_targets": [],
        "poll_source": null,
        "profit_change_pct": null,
        "revenue_change_pct": null,
        "volume_growth_yoy_pct": null
      },
      "patterns": {
        "pattern_reasoning": "Extreme valuation premium + cross-continent contagion = classic sector dump beginning",
        "pattern_type": "dump",
        "similar_past_event": null,
        "stage": "early",
        "strength": "strong"
      },
      "rag_alignment": {
        "rag_company_relevant": "no",
        "relevance_reasoning": "Similarity score 0.2288 is weak; article is about global semiconductor sell-off, RAG stock is an Indian commodity exchange with no chip exposure",
        "should_prioritize_rag": false,
        "similarity_affinity": "weak_connection"
      },
      "reasoning_chain": [
        "SOX P/E 28 vs 22 5-yr avg",
        "$500bn lost",
        "Contagion to Asia",
        "Expect continued selling"
      ],
      "red_flags": [
        "No valuation support mentioned",
        "Sell-off spreading geographically",
        "No policy response yet"
      ],
      "sentiment": {
        "confidence": 0.8,
        "direction": "negative",
        "drivers": [
          "SOX P/E 28% above 5-yr average",
          "$500bn market-cap erased",
          "sell-off spreading from US to Asia"
        ],
        "intensity": 0.85
      },
      "signals": {
        "crowd_behavior": {
          "source": "inference",
          "value": "panic"
        },
        "key_levels": {
          "source": "article",
          "values": []
        },
        "price_action_expected": {
          "source": "article",
          "value": "dump"
        },
        "reaction_reasoning": "Valuation gap too wide; funds forced to sell across regions",
        "volume_expectation": {
          "source": "inference",
          "value": "surge"
        }
      },
      "smart_money": {
        "big_players": [
          "institutional semiconductor holders",
          "Asian chip suppliers"
        ],
        "evidence": "widespread wipe-out",
        "retail_position": "panic",
        "their_likely_motive": "de-risk at any price"
      },
      "timing": {
        "catalyst_date": null,
        "expected_duration_days": 5,
        "temporal_anchor": "2025-11-05",
        "urgency": "immediate"
      },
      "trading_angles": [
        {
          "conviction": "high",
          "idea": "Avoid chip stocks until SOX P/E \u003c22",
          "reasoning": "Historical mean reversion of SOX P/E suggests further downside",
          "risk": "dead-cat bounce"
        },
        {
          "conviction": "medium",
          "idea": "Short SOX or chip ETFs",
          "reasoning": "Momentum is building and no support mentioned",
          "risk": "policy stimulus"
        }
      ]
    },
    "metrics": {
      "model_params": {
        "max_completion_tokens": 8192,
        "model": "moonshotai/kimi-k2-instruct-0905",
        "reasoning_effort": "medium",
        "stream": false,
        "temperature": 0.4,
        "top_p": 0.9
      },
      "timing": {
        "end_time": "2025-11-05T04:14:37.619747",
        "llm_response_seconds": 3.373,
        "rag_query_seconds": 0.992,
        "start_time": "2025-11-05T04:14:33.255054",
        "total_duration_seconds": 4.365
      },
      "tokens": {
        "actual_from_api": {
          "input_tokens": 4649,
          "output_tokens": 934,
          "total_tokens": 5583
        }
      }
    },
    "rag_match": {
      "company": "Multi Commodity Exchange of India Limited",
      "sector": "Financial Services",
      "similarity_score": 0.228796974,
      "symbol": "MCX.NS"
    },
    "timestamp": "2025-11-05T04:14:37.619833"
  },
  "article_id": "2a138d56-b258-490f-b2fd-0d85ddb4bec0",
  "result_id": "20251105_041437",
  "status": "completed"
}