Analysis Result #10743

{
  "analysis": {
    "input_data": {
      "article": "Title: RBI\u2019s dollar sales cross FY25 levels, hit $43.2 billion as rupee stays volatile\n\nPublished: 2026-01-22\n\nContent: While spot market sales slowed in November, RBI\u2019s forward market positions stayed elevated. The central bank had sold $66 billion in forwards by the end of the month.",
      "full_prompt_sent_to_llm": "=== NEWS ARTICLE ===\nTitle: RBI\u2019s dollar sales cross FY25 levels, hit $43.2 billion as rupee stays volatile\n\nPublished: 2026-01-22\n\nContent: While spot market sales slowed in November, RBI\u2019s forward market positions stayed elevated. The central bank had sold $66 billion in forwards by the end of the month.\n\n=== TOP MATCHING STOCK FROM RAG ===\n\nSymbol: FEDERALBNK.NS\nCompany: The Federal Bank Limited\nSector: Financial Services\nIndustry: Banks - Regional\nSimilarity Score: 0.3637 (36.37%)\n\nMarket Data:\n\u2022 Current Price: 227.86\n\u2022 Previous Close: 227.44\n\u2022 Day Low: 226.5\n\u2022 Day High: 231.25\n\u2022 52-Week Low: 172.66\n\u2022 52-Week High: 231.25\n\u2022 Volume: 16832445\n\u2022 Avg Volume: 7784644\n\nAdvanced Technical Indicators (21 total):\nClose_3d:227.08,227.44,227.86 | RSI:80.11 | MACD:7.724/5.049/2.675 | BB:231.73/205.65/179.57 | MA:205.65/199.17 | ATR:4.52 | OBV:122,334,081 | WillR:-8.59 | CMF:0.2742 | Ichi:218.89/210.15/214.52/209.82 | PSAR:212.25 | Aroon:100.00/36.00 | VWAP:203.45 | Force:95264988.10 | Mass:26.57 | Coppock:32.00 | UltOsc:62.62\n\nQuantitative Risk \u0026 Performance Metrics (35 total):\nAvgVol:8,856,372 | Price:227.86 | VaR:-0.0223/-0.0372 | CVaR:-0.0320/-0.0415 | Std:0.0159 | AnnVol:0.2517 | DownDev:0.0139 | Skew:0.8822 | Kurt:4.4029 | Sharpe:0.8507 | MaxDD:-0.1807 | VolRat:1.6778 | P/MA20:1.1080 | P/MA50:1.1440 | VolReg:1.3065 | Mom:0.1685/0.0772 | MeanRet:0.0009 | W/L:0.99 | Amihud:0.000000 | Roll:0.399429 | VolSurp:0.7024 | Omega:1.1819 | Sortino:1.0404 | TailR:1.1657 | ESRat:1.4359 | Hurst:0.1988 | HalfL:24.41 | Mom120:0.2096 | ApEn:0.7968\n\n=== ANALYZE THE ARTICLE (use RAG context if relevant) ===",
      "rag_context": {
        "company": "The Federal Bank Limited",
        "country": "India",
        "description_preview": "[STOCK SYMBOL]: FEDERALBNK.NS\n[COMPANY NAME]: The Federal Bank Limited\n[SECTOR]: Financial Services\n[INDUSTRY]: Banks - Regional\n[COUNTRY]: India\n------------------------------------------------------...",
        "full_description": "[STOCK SYMBOL]: FEDERALBNK.NS\n[COMPANY NAME]: The Federal Bank Limited\n[SECTOR]: Financial Services\n[INDUSTRY]: Banks - Regional\n[COUNTRY]: India\n--------------------------------------------------------------------------------\ncountry - India\nindustry - Banks - Regional\nsector - Financial Services\nlongBusinessSummary - The Federal Bank Limited provides a range of banking and financial services in India. The company operates through four segments: Treasury, Corporate/Wholesale Banking, Retail Banking, and Other Banking Operations segments. Its deposit products include savings accounts, current accounts, demat accounts, salary accounts, fixed deposits, cash certificates, recurring deposits, exchange earners\u0027 foreign currency accounts, gilt accounts, resident foreign currency (RFC) domestic and other accounts, and NRI deposit schemes. The company\u0027s loan portfolio comprises personal, gold, housing, car, property, education and career, digital personal, instant digital, SME business, and other loans; loans against sovereign gold bonds and fixed deposit; term loans, project finance, and working capital loans; and debit and credit cards. In addition, it offers life, health, and general insurance products; cash management, wealth management, and merchant banking services; sovereign gold bonds, online trading, and national pension system; treasury products, such as FX retail, forward contracts, options, and swaps; and remittance, fund transfer, payment and collection, bill discounting, bank guarantees, letter of credit, post shipment limit, LC bill discounting, packing credit loan in foreign currency, and rediscounting of export bills abroad services; and deposit locker, e-commerce, internet banking, mobile banking, and tele banking services. The Federal Bank Limited operates a network of branches and ATMs/cash recyclers. The company was formerly known as Travancore Federal Bank Limited and changed its name to The Federal Bank Limited in March 1947. The Federal Bank Limited was incorporated in 1931 and is based in Aluva, India.\nfullTimeEmployees - 15545\npreviousClose - 227.44\nopen - 227.44\ndayLow - 226.5\ndayHigh - 231.25\nregularMarketDayLow - 226.5\nregularMarketDayHigh - 231.25\ndividendRate - 1.2\ndividendYield - 0.53\nexDividendDate - 1755820800\npayoutRatio - 0.075100005\nfiveYearAvgDividendYield - 1.42\nbeta - 0.288\ntrailingPE - 14.2680025\nforwardPE - 19.491875\nvolume - 16832445\nregularMarketVolume - 16832445\naverageVolume - 7784644\naverageVolume10days - 13677839\naverageDailyVolume10Day - 13677839\nmarketCap - 560094773248\nfiftyTwoWeekLow - 172.66\nfiftyTwoWeekHigh - 231.25\npriceToSalesTrailing12Months - 4.115959\nfiftyDayAverage - 198.5958\ntwoHundredDayAverage - 196.7044\ntrailingAnnualDividendRate - 1.2\ntrailingAnnualDividendYield - 0.005276117\ncurrency - INR\nenterpriseValue - 603839135744\nprofitMargins - 0.28993\nfloatShares - 2305818546\nsharesOutstanding - 2458065491\nheldPercentInsiders - 0.04941\nheldPercentInstitutions - 0.60960996\nbookValue - 147.705\npriceToBook - 1.5426695\nearningsQuarterlyGrowth - -0.095\nnetIncomeToCommon - 39453458432\ntrailingEps - 15.97\nforwardEps - 11.69\nenterpriseToRevenue - 4.437\nlastDividendValue - 1.2\nquoteType - EQUITY\ncurrentPrice - 227.86\ntargetHighPrice - 265.0\ntargetLowPrice - 199.0\ntargetMeanPrice - 235.32353\ntargetMedianPrice - 239.5\nrecommendationMean - 1.69697\nrecommendationKey - buy\nnumberOfAnalystOpinions - 34\ntotalCash - 233733603328\ntotalCashPerShare - 95.196\ntotalDebt - 269304807424\ntotalRevenue - 136078794752\nrevenuePerShare - 55.389\nreturnOnAssets - 0.01133\nreturnOnEquity - 0.11451\ngrossProfits - 136078794752\nearningsGrowth - -0.097\nrevenueGrowth - 0.02\ngrossMargins - 0.0\nebitdaMargins - 0.0\noperatingMargins - 0.39277\nshortName - FEDERAL BANK LTD\nlongName - The Federal Bank Limited\nepsTrailingTwelveMonths - 15.97\nepsCurrentYear - 16.14032\nexchange - NSI\nregularMarketPrice - 227.86\ntrailingPegRatio - None\n--------------------------------------------------------------------------------\n[BUSINESS SUMMARY]\nThe Federal Bank Limited provides a range of banking and financial services in India. The company operates through four segments: Treasury, Corporate/Wholesale Banking, Retail Banking, and Other Banking Operations segments. Its deposit products include savings accounts, current accounts, demat accounts, salary accounts, fixed deposits, cash certificates, recurring deposits, exchange earners\u0027 foreign currency accounts, gilt accounts, resident foreign currency (RFC) domestic and other accounts, and NRI deposit schemes. The company\u0027s loan portfolio comprises personal, gold, housing, car, property, education and career, digital personal, instant digital, SME business, and other loans; loans against sovereign gold bonds and fixed deposit; term loans, project finance, and working capital loans; and debit and credit cards. In addition, it offers life, health, and general insurance products; cash management, wealth management, and merchant banking services; sovereign gold bonds, online trading, and national pension system; treasury products, such as FX retail, forward contracts, options, and swaps; and remittance, fund transfer, payment and collection, bill discounting, bank guarantees, letter of credit, post shipment limit, LC bill discounting, packing credit loan in foreign currency, and rediscounting of export bills abroad services; and deposit locker, e-commerce, internet banking, mobile banking, and tele banking services. The Federal Bank Limited operates a network of branches and ATMs/cash recyclers. The company was formerly known as Travancore Federal Bank Limited and changed its name to The Federal Bank Limited in March 1947. The Federal Bank Limited was incorporated in 1931 and is based in Aluva, India.\n--------------------------------------------------------------------------------\n[IMPORTANT METRICS]\nCompany: The Federal Bank Limited\nSector: Financial Services\nIndustry: Banks - Regional\nCountry: India\nMarket Cap: 560.09B\nCurrent Price: 227.86\nP/E Ratio: 14.2680025\nP/B Ratio: 1.5426695\nDividend Yield: 0.5300%\nROA: 0.0113\nROE: 0.1145\nProfit Margin: 0.2899\nBeta: 0.2880\nVolume: 16,832,445\nAvg Volume: 7,784,644\nDay Range: 226.5 - 231.25\n52Wk Range: 172.66 - 231.25\nTotal Revenue: 136078794752\nTotal Cash: 233.73B\nTotal Debt: 269.30B\nTarget Price: 199.0 - 265.0\nAnalyst Opinions: 34\nRecommendation: buy\n--------------------------------------------------------------------------------\n[TECHNICAL] Close_3d:227.08,227.44,227.86 | RSI:80.11 | MACD:7.724/5.049/2.675 | BB:231.73/205.65/179.57 | MA:205.65/199.17 | ATR:4.52 | OBV:122,334,081 | WillR:-8.59 | CMF:0.2742 | Ichi:218.89/210.15/214.52/209.82 | PSAR:212.25 | Aroon:100.00/36.00 | VWAP:203.45 | Force:95264988.10 | Mass:26.57 | Coppock:32.00 | UltOsc:62.62\n--------------------------------------------------------------------------------\n[QUANT] AvgVol:8,856,372 | Price:227.86 | VaR:-0.0223/-0.0372 | CVaR:-0.0320/-0.0415 | Std:0.0159 | AnnVol:0.2517 | DownDev:0.0139 | Skew:0.8822 | Kurt:4.4029 | Sharpe:0.8507 | MaxDD:-0.1807 | VolRat:1.6778 | P/MA20:1.1080 | P/MA50:1.1440 | VolReg:1.3065 | Mom:0.1685/0.0772 | MeanRet:0.0009 | W/L:0.99 | Amihud:0.000000 | Roll:0.399429 | VolSurp:0.7024 | Omega:1.1819 | Sortino:1.0404 | TailR:1.1657 | ESRat:1.4359 | Hurst:0.1988 | HalfL:24.41 | Mom120:0.2096 | ApEn:0.7968",
        "industry": "Banks - Regional",
        "sector": "Financial Services",
        "similarity_score": 0.363731414,
        "symbol": "FEDERALBNK.NS"
      }
    },
    "llm_analysis": {
      "actionable_summary": {
        "action": "hold",
        "bias": "neutral",
        "headline": "RBI FX ops continue, banks unaffected",
        "rationale": "Macro story, low bank relevance"
      },
      "between_lines": "Market numb to RBI flow; focus on forward book rollover",
      "confidence_score": 45,
      "connections": {
        "affects_directly": [
          "INR/USD"
        ],
        "affects_indirectly": [
          "Banks with FX exposure"
        ],
        "cause_effect_chain": "RBI sells dollars \u2192 rupee support \u2192 liquidity drain \u2192 bank funding cost",
        "follow_the_money": "RBI absorbs dollars \u2192 liquidity tight \u2192 short-end rates"
      },
      "core": {
        "action": "selling",
        "momentum": "neutral",
        "momentum_reasoning": "No price reaction mentioned for banks; RBI action already in market",
        "sector": "Macro",
        "topic": "RBI dollar sales",
        "trigger": "RBI sold $43.2 bln FY25-to-date to curb rupee volatility"
      },
      "cross_stock_impact": [
        {
          "impact_strength": 0.1,
          "impact_type": "neutral",
          "reasoning": "No direct linkage",
          "symbol": "FEDERALBNK.NS"
        }
      ],
      "data_quality": {
        "article_length_tokens": 45,
        "has_financial_data": true,
        "has_price_data": false,
        "has_sentiment_indicators": false,
        "missing_critical_info": [
          "bank impact",
          "price reaction",
          "volume data"
        ],
        "overall_quality_score": 0.3
      },
      "deals": {
        "counterparty": [],
        "deal_currency": null,
        "deal_size": null,
        "deal_type": null
      },
      "entities": [
        {
          "name": "RBI",
          "role": "seller",
          "ticker": null,
          "type": "government"
        }
      ],
      "financials": {
        "buyback": null,
        "data_source": null,
        "dividend": null,
        "funding_amount": null,
        "guidance": null,
        "profit": null,
        "revenue": null,
        "valuation": null
      },
      "market_reaction": {
        "expected_impact": "Neutral for banks",
        "index_impact": [],
        "price_change": null,
        "volume_change": null
      },
      "numerical_extractions": {
        "fiscal_period": null,
        "mentioned_prices": [],
        "mentioned_targets": [],
        "poll_source": null,
        "profit_change_pct": null,
        "revenue_change_pct": null,
        "volume_growth_yoy_pct": null
      },
      "patterns": {
        "pattern_reasoning": "No bank-specific pattern; macro intervention",
        "pattern_type": null,
        "similar_past_event": null,
        "stage": null,
        "strength": "weak"
      },
      "rag_alignment": {
        "rag_company_relevant": "partial",
        "relevance_reasoning": "Low 0.36 similarity; article about RBI FX ops, not directly about Federal Bank",
        "should_prioritize_rag": false,
        "similarity_interpretation": "weak_connection"
      },
      "reasoning_chain": [
        "RBI sold $43.2 bln",
        "Forwards at $66 bln",
        "No direct bank impact",
        "Low RAG relevance"
      ],
      "red_flags": [
        "Weak RAG match",
        "No bank-specific data",
        "No price reaction given"
      ],
      "sentiment": {
        "confidence": 0.6,
        "direction": "neutral",
        "drivers": [
          "RBI intervened",
          "forward sales elevated",
          "no rate change"
        ],
        "intensity": 0.3
      },
      "signals": {
        "crowd_behavior": {
          "source": "inference",
          "value": "apathy"
        },
        "key_levels": {
          "source": "inference",
          "values": []
        },
        "price_action_expected": {
          "source": "inference",
          "value": "range"
        },
        "reaction_reasoning": "No direct bank impact cited; macro liquidity story",
        "volume_expectation": {
          "source": "inference",
          "value": "normal"
        }
      },
      "smart_money": {
        "big_players": [
          "RBI"
        ],
        "evidence": "No bank stock reaction cited",
        "retail_position": "neutral",
        "their_likely_motive": "Stabilise rupee"
      },
      "timing": {
        "catalyst_date": null,
        "expected_duration_days": 30,
        "temporal_anchor": "2026-01-22",
        "urgency": "this_month"
      },
      "trading_angles": [
        {
          "conviction": "low",
          "idea": "Watch for RBI pause in forwards \u2192 INR relief \u2192 bank NIM support",
          "reasoning": "Tight liquidity already priced",
          "risk": "Further RBI sales"
        }
      ]
    },
    "metrics": {
      "model_params": {
        "max_completion_tokens": 8192,
        "model": "moonshotai/kimi-k2-instruct-0905",
        "reasoning_effort": "medium",
        "stream": false,
        "temperature": 0.4,
        "top_p": 0.9
      },
      "timing": {
        "end_time": "2026-01-22T09:59:18.007155",
        "llm_response_seconds": 2.94,
        "rag_query_seconds": 1.06,
        "start_time": "2026-01-22T09:59:14.006474",
        "total_duration_seconds": 4.001
      },
      "tokens": {
        "actual_from_api": {
          "input_tokens": 4639,
          "output_tokens": 777,
          "total_tokens": 5416
        }
      }
    },
    "rag_match": {
      "company": "The Federal Bank Limited",
      "sector": "Financial Services",
      "similarity_score": 0.363731414,
      "symbol": "FEDERALBNK.NS"
    },
    "timestamp": "2026-01-22T09:59:18.007223"
  },
  "article_id": "576a5ab5-f8e2-4321-99a4-0c6030f893e7",
  "result_id": "20260122_095918",
  "status": "completed"
}