Analysis Result #10738

{
  "analysis": {
    "input_data": {
      "article": "Title: IIFL Finance Q3 Results: Stock tanks 10% despite sharp surge in Gold loans; Here\u0027s why\n\nPublished: 2026-01-22\n\nContent: IIFL Finance\u0027s gold loans saw a sharp surge on a year-on-year and sequential basis, with the company stating that they have now normalised. The company\u0027s results were higher on a year-on-year basis across parameters but the stock still tanked.",
      "full_prompt_sent_to_llm": "=== NEWS ARTICLE ===\nTitle: IIFL Finance Q3 Results: Stock tanks 10% despite sharp surge in Gold loans; Here\u0027s why\n\nPublished: 2026-01-22\n\nContent: IIFL Finance\u0027s gold loans saw a sharp surge on a year-on-year and sequential basis, with the company stating that they have now normalised. The company\u0027s results were higher on a year-on-year basis across parameters but the stock still tanked.\n\n=== TOP MATCHING STOCK FROM RAG ===\n\nSymbol: IIFL.NS\nCompany: IIFL Finance Limited\nSector: Financial Services\nIndustry: Credit Services\nSimilarity Score: 0.4390 (43.90%)\n\nMarket Data:\n\u2022 Current Price: 491.40\n\u2022 Previous Close: 499.65\n\u2022 Day Low: 489.05\n\u2022 Day High: 502.9\n\u2022 52-Week Low: 279.8\n\u2022 52-Week High: 538.15\n\u2022 Volume: 799557\n\u2022 Avg Volume: 1403396\n\nAdvanced Technical Indicators (21 total):\nClose_3d:499.70,499.65,491.40 | RSI:58.86 | MACD:13.018/11.457/1.562 | BB:527.28/474.45/421.61 | MA:474.45/457.52 | ATR:14.14 | OBV:74,370,728 | WillR:-30.82 | CMF:0.0650 | Ichi:496.07/463.88/479.97/463.88 | PSAR:507.90 | Aroon:84.00/32.00 | VWAP:454.13 | Force:4606110.40 | Mass:25.64 | Coppock:12.01 | UltOsc:50.85\n\nQuantitative Risk \u0026 Performance Metrics (35 total):\nAvgVol:1,902,098 | Price:491.40 | VaR:-0.0330/-0.0516 | CVaR:-0.0482/-0.0709 | Std:0.0250 | AnnVol:0.3973 | DownDev:0.0236 | Skew:0.3181 | Kurt:2.1365 | Sharpe:0.5613 | MaxDD:-0.3795 | VolRat:2.6488 | P/MA20:1.0357 | P/MA50:1.0741 | VolReg:0.8208 | Mom:0.0918/-0.0795 | MeanRet:0.0009 | W/L:1.08 | Amihud:0.000000 | Roll:0.000000 | VolSurp:-0.4634 | Omega:1.1067 | Sortino:0.6357 | TailR:1.2716 | ESRat:1.4615 | Hurst:0.2428 | HalfL:61.75 | Mom120:0.3917 | ApEn:0.5381\n\n=== ANALYZE THE ARTICLE (use RAG context if relevant) ===",
      "rag_context": {
        "company": "IIFL Finance Limited",
        "country": "India",
        "description_preview": "[STOCK SYMBOL]: IIFL.NS\n[COMPANY NAME]: IIFL Finance Limited\n[SECTOR]: Financial Services\n[INDUSTRY]: Credit Services\n[COUNTRY]: India\n-----------------------------------------------------------------...",
        "full_description": "[STOCK SYMBOL]: IIFL.NS\n[COMPANY NAME]: IIFL Finance Limited\n[SECTOR]: Financial Services\n[INDUSTRY]: Credit Services\n[COUNTRY]: India\n--------------------------------------------------------------------------------\ncountry - India\nindustry - Credit Services\nsector - Financial Services\nlongBusinessSummary - IIFL Finance Limited, a non-banking financial company, provides financial services in India and internationally. The company offers home and gold loans; business loans, including business loans for manufacturers, women, and e-commerce; loans to micro, small, and medium enterprises; loans against securities; and digital finance loans, as well as supply chain finance. It also provides construction and real estate financing; capital market financing; and lending, investment, and wealth management services. The company was formerly known as IIFL Holdings Limited and changed its name to IIFL Finance Limited in May 2019. IIFL Finance Limited was incorporated in 1995 and is headquartered in Mumbai, India.\nfullTimeEmployees - 14782\npreviousClose - 499.65\nopen - 502.9\ndayLow - 489.05\ndayHigh - 502.9\nregularMarketDayLow - 489.05\nregularMarketDayHigh - 502.9\nexDividendDate - 1706140800\npayoutRatio - 0.0\nfiveYearAvgDividendYield - 1.26\nbeta - 0.541\ntrailingPE - 67.87293\nforwardPE - 10.20137\nvolume - 799557\nregularMarketVolume - 799557\naverageVolume - 1403396\naverageVolume10days - 1491282\naverageDailyVolume10Day - 1491282\nmarketCap - 208895180800\nfiftyTwoWeekLow - 279.8\nfiftyTwoWeekHigh - 538.15\npriceToSalesTrailing12Months - 3.6366217\nfiftyDayAverage - 456.587\ntwoHundredDayAverage - 411.84024\ntrailingAnnualDividendRate - 0.0\ntrailingAnnualDividendYield - 0.0\ncurrency - INR\nenterpriseValue - 690615484416\nprofitMargins - 0.056420002\nfloatShares - 234371353\nsharesOutstanding - 425102111\nheldPercentInsiders - 0.47028\nheldPercentInstitutions - 0.24306999\nbookValue - 292.384\npriceToBook - 1.6806664\nearningsQuarterlyGrowth - -0.19\nnetIncomeToCommon - 3240600064\ntrailingEps - 7.24\nforwardEps - 48.17\nenterpriseToRevenue - 12.023\nlastDividendValue - 3.885442\nquoteType - EQUITY\ncurrentPrice - 491.4\ntargetHighPrice - 550.0\ntargetLowPrice - 465.0\ntargetMeanPrice - 528.75\ntargetMedianPrice - 550.0\nrecommendationKey - none\nnumberOfAnalystOpinions - 4\ntotalCash - 61861101568\ntotalCashPerShare - 145.721\ntotalDebt - 524939100160\ntotalRevenue - 57442099200\ndebtToEquity - 376.166\nrevenuePerShare - 135.292\ngrossProfits - 57185398784\nearningsGrowth - -0.217\nrevenueGrowth - -0.136\ngrossMargins - 0.99553\nebitdaMargins - 0.0\noperatingMargins - 0.30768\nshortName - IIFL FINANCE LIMITED\nlongName - IIFL Finance Limited\nepsTrailingTwelveMonths - 7.24\nepsCurrentYear - 34.8\nexchange - NSI\nregularMarketPrice - 491.4\ntrailingPegRatio - None\n--------------------------------------------------------------------------------\n[BUSINESS SUMMARY]\nIIFL Finance Limited, a non-banking financial company, provides financial services in India and internationally. The company offers home and gold loans; business loans, including business loans for manufacturers, women, and e-commerce; loans to micro, small, and medium enterprises; loans against securities; and digital finance loans, as well as supply chain finance. It also provides construction and real estate financing; capital market financing; and lending, investment, and wealth management services. The company was formerly known as IIFL Holdings Limited and changed its name to IIFL Finance Limited in May 2019. IIFL Finance Limited was incorporated in 1995 and is headquartered in Mumbai, India.\n--------------------------------------------------------------------------------\n[IMPORTANT METRICS]\nCompany: IIFL Finance Limited\nSector: Financial Services\nIndustry: Credit Services\nCountry: India\nMarket Cap: 208.90B\nCurrent Price: 491.4\nP/E Ratio: 67.87293\nP/B Ratio: 1.6806664\nProfit Margin: 0.0564\nBeta: 0.5410\nVolume: 799,557\nAvg Volume: 1,403,396\nDay Range: 489.05 - 502.9\n52Wk Range: 279.8 - 538.15\nTotal Revenue: 57442099200\nTotal Cash: 61.86B\nTotal Debt: 524.94B\nDebt to Equity: 376.166\nTarget Price: 465.0 - 550.0\nAnalyst Opinions: 4\nRecommendation: none\n--------------------------------------------------------------------------------\n[TECHNICAL] Close_3d:499.70,499.65,491.40 | RSI:58.86 | MACD:13.018/11.457/1.562 | BB:527.28/474.45/421.61 | MA:474.45/457.52 | ATR:14.14 | OBV:74,370,728 | WillR:-30.82 | CMF:0.0650 | Ichi:496.07/463.88/479.97/463.88 | PSAR:507.90 | Aroon:84.00/32.00 | VWAP:454.13 | Force:4606110.40 | Mass:25.64 | Coppock:12.01 | UltOsc:50.85\n--------------------------------------------------------------------------------\n[QUANT] AvgVol:1,902,098 | Price:491.40 | VaR:-0.0330/-0.0516 | CVaR:-0.0482/-0.0709 | Std:0.0250 | AnnVol:0.3973 | DownDev:0.0236 | Skew:0.3181 | Kurt:2.1365 | Sharpe:0.5613 | MaxDD:-0.3795 | VolRat:2.6488 | P/MA20:1.0357 | P/MA50:1.0741 | VolReg:0.8208 | Mom:0.0918/-0.0795 | MeanRet:0.0009 | W/L:1.08 | Amihud:0.000000 | Roll:0.000000 | VolSurp:-0.4634 | Omega:1.1067 | Sortino:0.6357 | TailR:1.2716 | ESRat:1.4615 | Hurst:0.2428 | HalfL:61.75 | Mom120:0.3917 | ApEn:0.5381",
        "industry": "Credit Services",
        "sector": "Financial Services",
        "similarity_score": 0.439024985,
        "symbol": "IIFL.NS"
      }
    },
    "llm_analysis": {
      "actionable_summary": {
        "action": "sell",
        "bias": "bearish",
        "headline": "IIFL tanks on normalised gold-loan outlook",
        "rationale": "Growth peak fears + mean-reversion signal point to further downside"
      },
      "between_lines": "Market fears gold-loan growth has peaked; normalisation comment triggered profit-booking despite YoY rise",
      "confidence_score": 65,
      "connections": {
        "affects_directly": [
          "IIFL Finance"
        ],
        "affects_indirectly": [
          "gold-loan NBFC peers"
        ],
        "cause_effect_chain": "YoY beat + normalisation comment \u2192 fear of peak growth \u2192 sell-off",
        "follow_the_money": "rotation out after normalisation remark"
      },
      "core": {
        "action": "earnings_beat",
        "momentum": "fading",
        "momentum_reasoning": "Price dropped 1.65% despite positive YoY growth commentary",
        "sector": "Financial Services",
        "topic": "Q3 earnings",
        "trigger": "Gold-loan surge reported but stock sold off"
      },
      "cross_stock_impact": [
        {
          "impact_strength": 0.4,
          "impact_type": "negative",
          "reasoning": "Peer gold-loan NBFC may face similar growth fears",
          "symbol": "MANAPPURAM.NS"
        },
        {
          "impact_strength": 0.4,
          "impact_type": "negative",
          "reasoning": "Sectoral read-across on normalisation",
          "symbol": "MUTHOOTFIN.NS"
        }
      ],
      "data_quality": {
        "article_length_tokens": 65,
        "has_financial_data": false,
        "has_price_data": true,
        "has_sentiment_indicators": true,
        "missing_critical_info": [
          "EPS",
          "NIM",
          "AUM",
          "growth rate"
        ],
        "overall_quality_score": 0.45
      },
      "deals": {
        "counterparty": [],
        "deal_currency": null,
        "deal_size": null,
        "deal_type": null
      },
      "entities": [
        {
          "name": "IIFL Finance",
          "role": "victim",
          "ticker": "IIFL.NS",
          "type": "company"
        }
      ],
      "financials": {
        "buyback": null,
        "data_source": "article",
        "dividend": null,
        "funding_amount": null,
        "guidance": "gold loans normalised",
        "profit": null,
        "revenue": null,
        "valuation": null
      },
      "market_reaction": {
        "expected_impact": "Negative sentiment short-term until next catalyst",
        "index_impact": [],
        "price_change": "-1.65%",
        "volume_change": "-46.6%"
      },
      "numerical_extractions": {
        "fiscal_period": "Q3",
        "mentioned_prices": [],
        "mentioned_targets": [],
        "poll_source": null,
        "profit_change_pct": null,
        "revenue_change_pct": null,
        "volume_growth_yoy_pct": null
      },
      "patterns": {
        "pattern_reasoning": "Sharp sell-off on earnings day despite YoY growth indicates sell-the-news or guidance worry",
        "pattern_type": "dump",
        "similar_past_event": null,
        "stage": "completed",
        "strength": "strong"
      },
      "rag_alignment": {
        "rag_company_relevant": "partial",
        "relevance_reasoning": "Similarity 0.439 indicates sectoral relevance; article about IIFL Finance, RAG ticker IIFL.NS matches company name",
        "should_prioritize_rag": false,
        "similarity_interpretation": "sectoral_relevance"
      },
      "reasoning_chain": [
        "Gold-loan growth YoY and QoQ reported",
        "Management says growth now normalised",
        "Stock fell 10% (1.65% on day) on low volume",
        "Mean-reversion Hurst \u003c0.5 suggests further drift lower",
        "No hard numbers disclosed"
      ],
      "red_flags": [
        "Article lacks exact EPS or NIM figures",
        "No guidance on growth trajectory",
        "Volume well below average"
      ],
      "sentiment": {
        "confidence": 0.8,
        "direction": "negative",
        "drivers": [
          "stock tanks 10%",
          "results higher YoY",
          "gold loans normalised"
        ],
        "intensity": 0.7
      },
      "signals": {
        "crowd_behavior": {
          "source": "inference",
          "value": "confusion"
        },
        "key_levels": {
          "source": "article",
          "values": [
            "489.05",
            "499.65",
            "538.15"
          ]
        },
        "price_action_expected": {
          "source": "inference",
          "value": "grind_down"
        },
        "reaction_reasoning": "Volume 0.57\u00d7 average (volume_multiple 0.57) shows low conviction; Hurst 0.24 \u003c 0.5 indicates mean-reversion likely, so drift toward VWAP 454",
        "volume_expectation": {
          "source": "inference",
          "value": "dry_up"
        }
      },
      "smart_money": {
        "big_players": [
          "institutions"
        ],
        "evidence": "Volume 0.57\u00d7 average, CMF +0.065 shows mild accumulation yet price fell",
        "retail_position": "opposite",
        "their_likely_motive": "profit-taking on normalisation comment"
      },
      "timing": {
        "catalyst_date": "2026-01-22",
        "expected_duration_days": 3,
        "temporal_anchor": "2026-01-22",
        "urgency": "today"
      },
      "trading_angles": [
        {
          "conviction": "medium",
          "idea": "Short bounce into \u20b9500-502 resistance",
          "reasoning": "Mean-reversion signal with resistance at day high 502.9",
          "risk": "Sudden guidance upgrade"
        }
      ]
    },
    "metrics": {
      "model_params": {
        "max_completion_tokens": 8192,
        "model": "moonshotai/kimi-k2-instruct-0905",
        "reasoning_effort": "medium",
        "stream": false,
        "temperature": 0.4,
        "top_p": 0.9
      },
      "timing": {
        "end_time": "2026-01-22T09:29:19.128658",
        "llm_response_seconds": 4.085,
        "rag_query_seconds": 0.762,
        "start_time": "2026-01-22T09:29:14.281322",
        "total_duration_seconds": 4.847
      },
      "tokens": {
        "actual_from_api": {
          "input_tokens": 4655,
          "output_tokens": 1172,
          "total_tokens": 5827
        }
      }
    },
    "rag_match": {
      "company": "IIFL Finance Limited",
      "sector": "Financial Services",
      "similarity_score": 0.439024985,
      "symbol": "IIFL.NS"
    },
    "timestamp": "2026-01-22T09:29:19.129072"
  },
  "article_id": "4c457b8d-aecb-42d2-8606-45478e3930a8",
  "result_id": "20260122_092919",
  "status": "completed"
}